EuroLeague · Round 10 · Thursday 5 November at 21:00
ASVEL vs Bayern Munich: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 10)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| ASVEL | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 15th · 4-5 | 18th · 2-7 |
| Home / away | 3-2 / 1-3 | 0-4 / 2-3 |
| Form (5) | LLLWW | WLLLL |
| Points for / against | 87.6 / 92.3 | 85.4 / 94.4 |
| Net rating | -6.3 (16th) | -12.0 (19th) |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
ASVEL: L vs Crvena Zvezda 82-84 · L @ Real Madrid 92-111 · L @ Zalgiris 85-105 · W vs Partizan 82-75 · W vs Baskonia 94-79
Bayern Munich: W @ Anadolu Efes 101-93 · L @ Besiktas 87-95 · L vs Dubai Basketball 91-107 · L vs Barcelona 84-88 · L @ Crvena Zvezda 73-103
Our model gives ASVEL 57%, with a projected score of 90-87, about 176 total points and a pace of 75.6 possessions. Confidence: low.
2. What will decide the game
- ASVEL on defense, turnovers: they rank 3rd, while Bayern Munich's offense is 19th. ASVEL can shut this down.
- ASVEL on offense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 3rd in the league while Bayern Munich's defense ranks only 18th. A clear edge for ASVEL.
- Bayern Munich on defense, free throws: they rank 8th, while ASVEL's offense is 17th. Bayern Munich can shut this down.
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| ASVEL | Bayern Munich | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 115.0 (9th) | 113.8 (14th) | 115.6 |
| Defensive rating | 121.3 (16th) | 125.8 (20th) | 115.6 |
| Pace (possessions) | 76.1 (7th) | 75.1 (11th) | 75.0 |
| eFG% | 57.7% (3rd) | 55.5% (10th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 60.4% (6th) | 59.8% (8th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 41.5% | 41.2% | – |
| Assist rate | 69.1% (2nd) | 64.3% (8th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 18.1% (13th) | 19.1% (19th) | 16.9% |
| OREB% | 29.7% (16th) | 31.7% (14th) | 33.2% |
| DREB% | 59.0% (20th) | 64.7% (17th) | 66.8% |
| Free-throw rate | 28.1% (17th) | 29.9% (12th) | 30.3% |
| Opponent eFG% | 57.9% (16th) | 59.7% (18th) | 54.7% |
| Opponent TOV% | 18.7% (3rd) | 16.1% (14th) | 16.9% |
| Opponent FTr | 29.7% (10th) | 28.8% (8th) | 30.4% |
ASVEL: Strengths: efficient shooting and forces turnovers. Weaknesses: concedes second chances and rarely gets to the line.
Bayern Munich: Weaknesses: turns the ball over a lot and allows easy shots.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | ASVEL offense | Bayern Munich defense | Bayern Munich offense | ASVEL defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 57.7% (3rd) | 59.7% (18th) | 55.5% (10th) | 57.9% (16th) |
| turnovers | 18.1% (13th) | 16.1% (14th) | 19.1% (19th) | 18.7% (3rd) |
| offensive rebounds | 29.7% (16th) | 35.3% (17th) | 31.7% (14th) | 41.0% (20th) |
| free throws | 28.1% (17th) | 28.8% (8th) | 29.9% (12th) | 29.7% (10th) |
4. Shots and zones
ASVEL take 26% of their shots wing threes (league 26%) at 42% (league 35%), and Bayern Munich allow 37% there. That is ASVEL's biggest edge.
Bayern Munich take 25% of their shots wing threes (league 26%) at 40% (league 35%), and ASVEL allow 37% there. That is Bayern Munich's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense ASVEL | 18% · 69% | 25% · 53% | 15% · 39% | 8% · 50% | 26% · 42% | 8% · 32% |
| Defense Bayern Munich | 20% · 84% | 26% · 48% | 10% · 51% | 9% · 42% | 25% · 37% | 10% · 37% |
| Offense Bayern Munich | 17% · 76% | 30% · 48% | 12% · 47% | 7% · 37% | 25% · 40% | 9% · 28% |
| Defense ASVEL | 21% · 68% | 25% · 54% | 8% · 35% | 6% · 49% | 32% · 37% | 7% · 48% |
| League | 17% · 78% | 30% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 40% | 26% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
ASVEL: 7% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Bayern Munich: 6% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart ASVEL · Shot chart Bayern Munich
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
ASVEL
Best lineups
- Joel Bolomboy, Both Gach, Hugo Besson, Tremont Waters, Jae Crowder: +6.6 net in 61 possessions
- Joel Bolomboy, Both Gach, Marc-Owen Fodzo Dada, Patty Mills, Jae Crowder: -43.2 net in 32 possessions
On/Off
- Patty Mills: the team is +29.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Tyty Washington Jr: the team is +25.4 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Both Gach: the team is 34.0 better with him off the court
ASVEL: +43.6 net in 30 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 36-23 in points.
Bayern Munich
Best lineups
- Andreas Obst, Johannes Voigtmann, Rokas Jokubaitis, Miles Norris, Marjon Beauchamp: +3.9 net in 25 possessions
- Vladimir Lucic, Johannes Thiemann, Oscar Da Silva, Kamar Baldwin, Justinian Jessup: +56.3 net in 25 possessions
On/Off
- Tobias Jensen: the team is +45.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Justinian Jessup: the team is +28.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Austin Wiley: the team is 26.4 better with him off the court
Bayern Munich: -32.8 net in 34 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 30-41 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
ASVEL
- Patty Mills Guards: 15.1 pts, 0.6 reb, 2.3 ast, 14.5 PIR
- Tyty Washington Jr Guards: 10.8 pts, 2.6 reb, 4.4 ast, 13.4 PIR
- Hugo Besson Guards: 11.7 pts, 2.9 reb, 3.0 ast, 12.3 PIR
- Jae Crowder Forwards: 10.9 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.4 ast, 11.3 PIR
Bayern Munich
- Johannes Thiemann Centers: 8.8 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.4 ast, 11.8 PIR
- Duane Washington Guards: 15.3 pts, 0.8 reb, 2.9 ast, 10.8 PIR
- Oscar Da Silva Forwards: 7.5 pts, 2.3 reb, 0.8 ast, 9.3 PIR
- Vladimir Lucic Forwards: 5.9 pts, 2.4 reb, 0.8 ast, 8.2 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | ASVEL produce | Bayern Munich allow | Bayern Munich produce | ASVEL allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 45.8 | 48.3 | 29.4 | 36.4 |
| Forwards | 36.0 | 27.7 | 26.3 | 39.9 |
| Centers | 8.6 | 28.8 | 25.0 | 22.6 |
The most open matchup: ASVEL's guards (45.8 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 48.3 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
ASVEL
- Myles Cale: Has missed his team's last 2 games
Bayern Munich
- No known absences
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): ASVEL 2, Bayern Munich 4.
- 2026-03-26: Bayern Munich – ASVEL 93-83
- 2025-12-17: ASVEL – Bayern Munich 76-74
- 2025-02-06: Bayern Munich – ASVEL 76-67
- 2024-11-01: ASVEL – Bayern Munich 71-84
- 2024-01-25: Bayern Munich – ASVEL 64-76
- 2023-11-23: ASVEL – Bayern Munich 100-101
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: ASVEL 57% – Bayern Munich 43%, a score of about 90-87. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.