How accurate is our model
For each game we rebuild the prediction using only what the model knew before the round, and compare it with the result. Games count from Round 3, once there is enough data.
67%Right winner
47/70Games
9.5Average miss on margin
14.7Average miss on total points
By round
| Round | Right winners | % | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 9 | 7/10 | 70% | 9.6 | 11.3 |
| Round 8 | 7/10 | 70% | 11.2 | 14.3 |
| Round 7 | 8/10 | 80% | 9.6 | 17.7 |
| Round 6 | 6/10 | 60% | 9.2 | 15.6 |
| Round 5 | 8/10 | 80% | 8.7 | 17.5 |
| Round 4 | 5/10 | 50% | 10.7 | 11.4 |
| Round 3 | 6/10 | 60% | 7.5 | 15.3 |
Does more confidence mean more accuracy?
Predictions grouped by the probability the model gave the favourite
| Favourite’s probability | Games | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 27 | 63% |
| 60–70% | 18 | 72% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 64% |
| 80–100% | 11 | 73% |
The biggest misses
- Barcelona – Zalgiris 81-88: favourite Barcelona at 86%
- Panathinaikos – Hapoel Tel Aviv 81-91: favourite Panathinaikos at 84%
- Valencia Basket – Maccabi Tel Aviv 88-91: favourite Valencia Basket at 84%
- Dubai Basketball – Paris Basketball 93-99: favourite Dubai Basketball at 77%
- Virtus Bologna – Olympiacos 96-94: favourite Olympiacos at 75%
- Baskonia – Olimpia Milano 86-76: favourite Olimpia Milano at 74%
The model estimates the score from offensive and defensive ratings per 100 possessions, pace and home court. It does not account for injuries. A statistical estimate, not betting advice.