Betting Insights 18+
Where our statistical model disagrees with the market. Model edge = model probability β market probability without the bookmaker margin, in percentage points. It is a comparison metric, not a promise.
No licensed odds provider is connected yet. Until then you only see the modelβs probabilities and the matching βfairβ odds (1/probability), not real bookmaker odds.
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| Game | Model (1/2) | Fair odds | Best price | Market no-vig | Model edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid β Panathinaikos Wed 4 Nov, 21:45 | 66.8% / 33.2% | 1.50 / 3.01 | β | |||
| Anadolu Efes β Paris Basketball Thu 5 Nov, 19:15 | 62.6% / 37.4% | 1.60 / 2.67 | β | |||
| Fenerbahce β Baskonia Thu 5 Nov, 20:00 | 85.1% / 14.9% | 1.18 / 6.70 | β | |||
| Hapoel Tel Aviv β Barcelona Thu 5 Nov, 20:45 | 63.5% / 36.5% | 1.57 / 2.74 | β | |||
| ASVEL β Bayern Munich Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 | 57.1% / 42.9% | 1.75 / 2.33 | β | |||
| Olimpia Milano β Valencia Basket Thu 5 Nov, 21:30 | 25.2% / 74.8% | 3.97 / 1.34 | β | |||
| Besiktas β Zalgiris Fri 6 Nov, 19:00 | 50.6% / 49.4% | 1.98 / 2.02 | β | |||
| Olympiacos β Crvena Zvezda Fri 6 Nov, 21:15 | 73.9% / 26.1% | 1.35 / 3.82 | β | |||
| Virtus Bologna β Dubai Basketball Fri 6 Nov, 21:30 | 39.6% / 60.4% | 2.53 / 1.65 | β | |||
| Partizan β Maccabi Tel Aviv Fri 6 Nov, 21:45 | 69.4% / 30.6% | 1.44 / 3.27 | β | |||
| Partizan β Baskonia Wed 11 Nov, 21:45 | 74.7% / 25.3% | 1.34 / 3.95 | β | |||
| Paris Basketball β Fenerbahce Wed 11 Nov, 21:45 | 43.5% / 56.5% | 2.30 / 1.77 | β | |||
| Maccabi Tel Aviv β Hapoel Tel Aviv Thu 12 Nov, 21:05 | 33.7% / 66.3% | 2.97 / 1.51 | β | |||
| Olympiacos β Dubai Basketball Thu 12 Nov, 21:15 | 78.6% / 21.4% | 1.27 / 4.66 | β | |||
| Valencia Basket β Bayern Munich Thu 12 Nov, 21:30 | 83.1% / 16.9% | 1.20 / 5.92 | β | |||
| Olimpia Milano β Zalgiris Thu 12 Nov, 21:30 | 33.3% / 66.7% | 3.00 / 1.50 | β | |||
| Real Madrid β Crvena Zvezda Thu 12 Nov, 22:00 | 66.0% / 34.0% | 1.51 / 2.94 | β | |||
| Anadolu Efes β Virtus Bologna Fri 13 Nov, 19:30 | 70.0% / 30.0% | 1.43 / 3.33 | β | |||
| Panathinaikos β Barcelona Fri 13 Nov, 21:15 | 66.1% / 33.9% | 1.51 / 2.95 | β | |||
| ASVEL β Besiktas Fri 13 Nov, 21:30 | 47.2% / 52.8% | 2.12 / 1.89 | β | |||
| Dubai Basketball β Anadolu Efes Tue 17 Nov, 18:00 | 70.4% / 29.6% | 1.42 / 3.38 | β | |||
| Maccabi Tel Aviv β Olympiacos Tue 17 Nov, 19:00 | 22.4% / 77.6% | 4.46 / 1.29 | β | |||
| Zalgiris β Bayern Munich Tue 17 Nov, 20:00 | 79.4% / 20.6% | 1.26 / 4.85 | β | |||
| Fenerbahce β ASVEL Tue 17 Nov, 20:00 | 81.8% / 18.2% | 1.22 / 5.51 | β | |||
| Barcelona β Paris Basketball Tue 17 Nov, 21:30 | 70.8% / 29.2% | 1.41 / 3.42 | β | |||
| Olimpia Milano β Crvena Zvezda Tue 17 Nov, 21:30 | 30.1% / 69.9% | 3.32 / 1.43 | β | |||
| Baskonia β Hapoel Tel Aviv Tue 17 Nov, 21:30 | 26.0% / 74.0% | 3.85 / 1.35 | β | |||
| Partizan β Valencia Basket Tue 17 Nov, 21:45 | 39.9% / 60.1% | 2.51 / 1.66 | β | |||
| Virtus Bologna β Panathinaikos Tue 17 Nov, 22:00 | 35.5% / 64.5% | 2.82 / 1.55 | β | |||
| Besiktas β Real Madrid Wed 18 Nov, 19:00 | 39.5% / 60.5% | 2.53 / 1.65 | β | |||
| Maccabi Tel Aviv β Dubai Basketball Thu 19 Nov, 19:30 | 36.4% / 63.6% | 2.75 / 1.57 | β | |||
| Zalgiris β Panathinaikos Thu 19 Nov, 20:00 | 56.5% / 43.5% | 1.77 / 2.30 | β | |||
| Bayern Munich β Baskonia Thu 19 Nov, 21:00 | 65.8% / 34.2% | 1.52 / 2.93 | β | |||
| Olimpia Milano β Fenerbahce Thu 19 Nov, 21:30 | 29.6% / 70.4% | 3.38 / 1.42 | β | |||
| Paris Basketball β Hapoel Tel Aviv Thu 19 Nov, 21:45 | 45.0% / 55.0% | 2.22 / 1.82 | β | |||
| Valencia Basket β Virtus Bologna Thu 19 Nov, 22:00 | 83.3% / 16.7% | 1.20 / 6.00 | β | |||
| Anadolu Efes β ASVEL Fri 20 Nov, 19:30 | 70.8% / 29.2% | 1.41 / 3.42 | β | |||
| Olympiacos β Real Madrid Fri 20 Nov, 21:15 | 68.7% / 31.3% | 1.45 / 3.20 | β | |||
| Barcelona β Crvena Zvezda Fri 20 Nov, 21:30 | 55.4% / 44.6% | 1.81 / 2.24 | β | |||
Internal PIR lines β Β· Closing Line Value β Β· Model accuracy β
Methodology
Implied probability = 1/odds. The implied probabilities of a market add up to more than 100%: the excess is the bookmaker margin (vig). We remove it by normalising (each implied / sum) and average all bookmakers. Model edge β₯ +2.5 pp = model value, β€ β2.5 pp = market value, otherwise neutral. Confidence combines edge size, model certainty and price freshness. Handicap/total: probability from the projected margin/total and the backtest standard error. Odds come only from a licensed data provider; they are not collected from bookmaker sites.