EuroLeague · Round 10 · Friday 6 November at 21:30
Virtus Bologna vs Dubai Basketball: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 10)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Virtus Bologna | Dubai Basketball | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 13th · 4-5 | 9th · 6-3 |
| Home / away | 2-2 / 2-3 | 3-2 / 3-1 |
| Form (5) | WWLLL | WWWLW |
| Points for / against | 86.8 / 89.1 | 87.4 / 85.1 |
| Net rating | -3.1 (13th) | +3.2 (8th) |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
Virtus Bologna: W @ Paris Basketball 96-94 · W vs Baskonia 86-78 · L @ Hapoel Tel Aviv 81-90 · L vs Zalgiris 74-91 · L vs Besiktas 101-103
Dubai Basketball: W @ Baskonia 93-79 · W @ Olimpia Milano 101-97 · W @ Bayern Munich 107-91 · L vs Paris Basketball 93-99 · W vs Hapoel Tel Aviv 97-83
Our model gives Dubai Basketball 60%, with a projected score of 89-90, about 179 total points and a pace of 75.8 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Virtus Bologna on offense, turnovers: they rank 9th in the league while Dubai Basketball's defense ranks only 20th. A clear edge for Virtus Bologna.
- Dubai Basketball on offense, turnovers: they rank 5th in the league while Virtus Bologna's defense ranks only 16th. A clear edge for Dubai Basketball.
- Dubai Basketball on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 10th, while Virtus Bologna's offense is 18th. Dubai Basketball can shut this down.
- Pace: Virtus Bologna play faster (76.4 possessions) than Dubai Basketball (72.7). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 75.8.
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Virtus Bologna | Dubai Basketball | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 113.5 (15th) | 120.3 (5th) | 115.6 |
| Defensive rating | 116.6 (11th) | 117.0 (12th) | 115.6 |
| Pace (possessions) | 76.4 (6th) | 72.7 (18th) | 75.0 |
| eFG% | 51.2% (18th) | 55.5% (9th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 55.9% (17th) | 60.2% (7th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 41.3% | 37.8% | – |
| Assist rate | 55.7% (18th) | 57.7% (16th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 16.9% (9th) | 15.6% (5th) | 16.9% |
| OREB% | 36.6% (2nd) | 33.6% (13th) | 33.2% |
| DREB% | 63.9% (18th) | 68.8% (6th) | 66.8% |
| Free-throw rate | 33.0% (3rd) | 35.3% (2nd) | 30.3% |
| Opponent eFG% | 53.0% (7th) | 53.7% (10th) | 54.7% |
| Opponent TOV% | 15.8% (16th) | 12.8% (20th) | 16.9% |
| Opponent FTr | 26.1% (5th) | 25.3% (3rd) | 30.4% |
Virtus Bologna: Strengths: strong on second chances and gets to the line often. Weaknesses: poor shooting and concedes second chances.
Dubai Basketball: Strengths: gets to the line often and protects the ball. Weaknesses: forces few turnovers.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Virtus Bologna offense | Dubai Basketball defense | Dubai Basketball offense | Virtus Bologna defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 51.2% (18th) | 53.7% (10th) | 55.5% (9th) | 53.0% (7th) |
| turnovers | 16.9% (9th) | 12.8% (20th) | 15.6% (5th) | 15.8% (16th) |
| offensive rebounds | 36.6% (2nd) | 31.2% (6th) | 33.6% (13th) | 36.1% (18th) |
| free throws | 33.0% (3rd) | 25.3% (3rd) | 35.3% (2nd) | 26.1% (5th) |
4. Shots and zones
Virtus Bologna take 14% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 82% (league 78%), and Dubai Basketball allow 83% there. That is Virtus Bologna's biggest edge.
Dubai Basketball take 23% of their shots wing threes (league 26%) at 37% (league 35%), and Virtus Bologna allow 39% there. That is Dubai Basketball's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Virtus Bologna | 14% · 82% | 34% · 43% | 12% · 46% | 3% · 24% | 30% · 30% | 7% · 43% |
| Defense Dubai Basketball | 12% · 83% | 37% · 52% | 12% · 37% | 6% · 43% | 25% · 34% | 9% · 31% |
| Offense Dubai Basketball | 15% · 84% | 34% · 48% | 13% · 41% | 7% · 46% | 23% · 37% | 8% · 30% |
| Defense Virtus Bologna | 15% · 72% | 36% · 44% | 9% · 36% | 4% · 19% | 29% · 39% | 8% · 37% |
| League | 17% · 78% | 30% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 40% | 26% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Virtus Bologna: 6% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Dubai Basketball: 6% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Shot chart Virtus Bologna · Shot chart Dubai Basketball
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Virtus Bologna
Best lineups
- Marcus Carr, Derrick Alston Jr., Aliou Diarra, Kessler Edwards, Wendell Moore: +9.9 net in 61 possessions
- Marcus Carr, Mouhamet Diouf, Derrick Alston Jr., Kessler Edwards, Wendell Moore: -35.7 net in 39 possessions
On/Off
- Wendell Moore: the team is +16.0 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Marcus Carr: the team is +11.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Daniel Hackett: the team is 29.4 better with him off the court
Virtus Bologna: -11.9 net in 42 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 54-59 in points.
Dubai Basketball
Best lineups
- Filip Petrusev, Dwayne Bacon, Mckinley Wright Iv, Mfiondu Kabengele, Davion Mintz: +36.0 net in 53 possessions
- Elie Okobo, Jaron Blossomgame, Dwayne Bacon, Mckinley Wright Iv, Mfiondu Kabengele: +7.6 net in 93 possessions
On/Off
- Mckinley Wright Iv: the team is +30.8 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Filip Petrusev: the team is +15.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Kosta Kondic: the team is 32.7 better with him off the court
Dubai Basketball: -97.3 net in 11 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 9-20 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Virtus Bologna
- Aliou Diarra Centers: 11.6 pts, 7.0 reb, 0.3 ast, 18.1 PIR
- Wendell Moore Guards: 11.7 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.1 ast, 11.9 PIR
- Marcus Carr Guards: 13.1 pts, 2.1 reb, 5.1 ast, 11.2 PIR
- Derrick Alston Jr. Forwards: 14.0 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.1 ast, 10.2 PIR
Dubai Basketball
- Dwayne Bacon Forwards: 16.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.8 ast, 19.1 PIR
- Mfiondu Kabengele Centers: 14.4 pts, 7.7 reb, 1.1 ast, 17.9 PIR
- Elie Okobo Guards: 12.1 pts, 2.2 reb, 4.7 ast, 13.9 PIR
- Filip Petrusev Centers: 8.8 pts, 2.8 reb, 0.8 ast, 11.3 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Virtus Bologna produce | Dubai Basketball allow | Dubai Basketball produce | Virtus Bologna allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 39.3 | 37.6 | 28.8 | 33.8 |
| Forwards | 25.1 | 26.8 | 32.3 | 34.9 |
| Centers | 26.7 | 20.0 | 34.2 | 19.9 |
The most open matchup: Virtus Bologna's guards (39.3 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 37.6 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Virtus Bologna
- Tommaso Baldasso: Has missed his team's last 2 games
Dubai Basketball
- Thomas Walkup: Has missed his team's last 3 games
8. Head-to-head
In their last 2 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Virtus Bologna 2, Dubai Basketball 0.
- 2026-01-15: Dubai Basketball – Virtus Bologna 72-80
- 2025-12-05: Virtus Bologna – Dubai Basketball 79-78
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Virtus Bologna 40% – Dubai Basketball 60%, a score of about 89-90. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.