EuroLeague · Round 10 · Friday 6 November at 21:15
Olympiacos vs Crvena Zvezda: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 10)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Olympiacos | Crvena Zvezda | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 2nd · 7-2 | 3rd · 6-3 |
| Home / away | 2-1 / 5-1 | 4-2 / 2-1 |
| Form (5) | WWLWW | WWLWW |
| Points for / against | 90.6 / 83.8 | 85.6 / 77.0 |
| Net rating | +8.9 (4th) | +11.4 (2nd) |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
Olympiacos: W @ Valencia Basket 102-97 · W @ Barcelona 105-100 · L vs Fenerbahce 61-64 · W @ Besiktas 81-73 · W vs Olimpia Milano 84-78
Crvena Zvezda: W @ ASVEL 84-82 · W vs Paris Basketball 90-81 · L @ Partizan 82-85 · W vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 100-78 · W vs Bayern Munich 103-73
Our model gives Olympiacos 74%, with a projected score of 89-83, about 172 total points and a pace of 73.4 possessions. Confidence: high.
2. What will decide the game
- Olympiacos on offense, offensive rebounds: they rank 1st in the league while Crvena Zvezda's defense ranks only 14th. A clear edge for Olympiacos.
- Olympiacos on defense, free throws: they rank 1st, while Crvena Zvezda's offense is 14th. Olympiacos can shut this down.
- Crvena Zvezda on defense, turnovers: they rank 4th, while Olympiacos's offense is 11th. Crvena Zvezda can shut this down.
- Absences: Evan Fournier (Olympiacos), Jean Montero (Olympiacos).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Olympiacos | Crvena Zvezda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 119.1 (6th) | 114.4 (13th) | 115.6 |
| Defensive rating | 110.2 (5th) | 103.0 (2nd) | 115.6 |
| Pace (possessions) | 74.0 (13th) | 73.8 (15th) | 75.0 |
| eFG% | 56.0% (7th) | 52.3% (15th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 60.4% (5th) | 55.9% (16th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 37.4% | 42.7% | – |
| Assist rate | 61.9% (12th) | 70.8% (1st) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 17.7% (11th) | 15.6% (6th) | 16.9% |
| OREB% | 37.4% (1st) | 33.6% (12th) | 33.2% |
| DREB% | 67.1% (10th) | 66.3% (14th) | 66.8% |
| Free-throw rate | 32.9% (4th) | 28.8% (14th) | 30.3% |
| Opponent eFG% | 53.1% (9th) | 47.9% (1st) | 54.7% |
| Opponent TOV% | 17.8% (6th) | 18.6% (4th) | 16.9% |
| Opponent FTr | 21.3% (1st) | 30.5% (11th) | 30.4% |
Olympiacos: Strengths: strong on second chances and gets to the line often.
Crvena Zvezda: Strengths: holds opponents to poor shooting and forces turnovers.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Olympiacos offense | Crvena Zvezda defense | Crvena Zvezda offense | Olympiacos defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 56.0% (7th) | 47.9% (1st) | 52.3% (15th) | 53.1% (9th) |
| turnovers | 17.7% (11th) | 18.6% (4th) | 15.6% (6th) | 17.8% (6th) |
| offensive rebounds | 37.4% (1st) | 33.7% (14th) | 33.6% (12th) | 32.9% (10th) |
| free throws | 32.9% (4th) | 30.5% (11th) | 28.8% (14th) | 21.3% (1st) |
4. Shots and zones
Olympiacos take 7% of their shots corner threes (league 6%) at 50% (league 40%), and Crvena Zvezda allow 32% there. That is Olympiacos's biggest edge.
Crvena Zvezda take 10% of their shots from mid-range (league 11%) at 49% (league 42%), and Olympiacos allow 39% there. That is Crvena Zvezda's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Olympiacos | 23% · 82% | 31% · 47% | 8% · 43% | 7% · 50% | 24% · 31% | 6% · 18% |
| Defense Crvena Zvezda | 16% · 71% | 34% · 44% | 9% · 33% | 6% · 32% | 25% · 30% | 11% · 31% |
| Offense Crvena Zvezda | 17% · 70% | 30% · 44% | 10% · 49% | 8% · 34% | 23% · 32% | 11% · 41% |
| Defense Olympiacos | 15% · 83% | 24% · 35% | 11% · 39% | 9% · 50% | 32% · 37% | 8% · 26% |
| League | 17% · 78% | 30% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 40% | 26% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Olympiacos: 5% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Crvena Zvezda: 8% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Shot chart Olympiacos · Shot chart Crvena Zvezda
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Olympiacos
Best lineups
- Kostas Papanikolaou, Sasha Vezenkov, Codi Miller-Mcintyre, Donta Hall, Tyson Ward: +42.2 net in 36 possessions
- Sasha Vezenkov, Codi Miller-Mcintyre, Tyler Dorsey, Donta Hall, Tyson Ward: -30.4 net in 36 possessions
On/Off
- Jean Montero (out): the team is +27.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Evan Fournier (out): the team is +17.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Cory Joseph: the team is 21.7 better with him off the court
Olympiacos: +19.5 net in 72 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 89-75 in points.
Crvena Zvezda
Best lineups
- Chris Jones, Tyson Carter, Chima Moneke, Jordan Nwora, Christian Koloko: +46.4 net in 28 possessions
- Nikola Djurisic, Chris Jones, Semi Ojeleye, Chima Moneke, Jared Butler: +43.4 net in 28 possessions
On/Off
- Ognjen Dobric: the team is +16.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Chima Moneke: the team is +14.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Johnathan Motley: the team is 33.0 better with him off the court
Crvena Zvezda: +18.6 net in 48 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 56-47 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Olympiacos
- Sasha Vezenkov Forwards: 18.2 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.0 ast, 22.3 PIR
- Tyler Dorsey Guards: 12.6 pts, 1.6 reb, 1.4 ast, 12.0 PIR
- Mbaye Ndiaye Forwards: 9.2 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.1 ast, 11.0 PIR
- Nikola Milutinov Centers: 3.8 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.0 ast, 10.4 PIR
Crvena Zvezda
- Chima Moneke Forwards: 11.2 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.6 ast, 14.4 PIR
- Jordan Nwora Forwards: 14.7 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.2 ast, 14.2 PIR
- Chris Jones Guards: 8.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 5.9 ast, 13.6 PIR
- Semi Ojeleye Forwards: 9.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.4 ast, 11.6 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Olympiacos produce | Crvena Zvezda allow | Crvena Zvezda produce | Olympiacos allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 18.2 | 27.7 | 37.8 | 36.8 |
| Forwards | 48.2 | 31.2 | 48.2 | 28.4 |
| Centers | 19.8 | 16.9 | 3.0 | 15.9 |
The most open matchup: Olympiacos's forwards (48.2 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 31.2 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Olympiacos
- Evan Fournier: Injured: Shoulder and knee, out about 20 days · Expected back: 10 November
- Tyler Dorsey: Has missed his team's last 4 games
- Jean Montero: Injured: Left knee meniscus surgery, out about 6 months · Expected back: May 2027
Crvena Zvezda
- No known absences
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Olympiacos 3, Crvena Zvezda 3.
- 2026-02-12: Olympiacos – Crvena Zvezda 92-86
- 2025-11-26: Crvena Zvezda – Olympiacos 91-80
- 2025-03-20: Olympiacos – Crvena Zvezda 73-81
- 2024-12-13: Crvena Zvezda – Olympiacos 87-73
- 2024-04-04: Crvena Zvezda – Olympiacos 86-89
- 2023-11-16: Olympiacos – Crvena Zvezda 88-83
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Olympiacos 74% – Crvena Zvezda 26%, a score of about 89-83. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.