EuroLeague · Round 10 · Thursday 5 November at 20:00
Fenerbahce vs Baskonia: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 10)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Fenerbahce | Baskonia | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 7th · 6-3 | 20th · 1-8 |
| Home / away | 5-0 / 1-3 | 1-4 / 0-4 |
| Form (5) | WWWLL | LLLLL |
| Points for / against | 79.9 / 76.6 | 83.1 / 94.1 |
| Net rating | +4.6 (7th) | -14.2 (20th) |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
Fenerbahce: W vs Zalgiris 99-80 · W vs Partizan 74-65 · W @ Olympiacos 64-61 · L @ Valencia Basket 78-86 · L @ Real Madrid 76-95
Baskonia: L vs Dubai Basketball 79-93 · L @ Virtus Bologna 78-86 · L @ Panathinaikos 79-85 · L vs Real Madrid 86-104 · L @ ASVEL 79-94
Our model gives Fenerbahce 85%, with a projected score of 88-78, about 166 total points and a pace of 75.0 possessions. Confidence: high.
2. What will decide the game
- Fenerbahce on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 2nd, while Baskonia's offense is 20th. Fenerbahce can shut this down.
- Fenerbahce on defense, turnovers: they rank 9th, while Baskonia's offense is 20th. Fenerbahce can shut this down.
- Baskonia on offense, free throws: they rank 5th in the league while Fenerbahce's defense ranks only 16th. A clear edge for Baskonia.
- Pace: Baskonia play faster (77.2 possessions) than Fenerbahce (72.0). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 75.0.
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Fenerbahce | Baskonia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 110.9 (17th) | 107.6 (19th) | 115.6 |
| Defensive rating | 106.3 (3rd) | 121.9 (17th) | 115.6 |
| Pace (possessions) | 72.0 (20th) | 77.2 (2nd) | 75.0 |
| eFG% | 51.9% (17th) | 50.4% (20th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 55.8% (18th) | 55.4% (19th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 43.7% | 41.7% | – |
| Assist rate | 62.0% (10th) | 69.0% (3rd) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 17.6% (10th) | 19.9% (20th) | 16.9% |
| OREB% | 33.7% (11th) | 34.0% (10th) | 33.2% |
| DREB% | 66.4% (13th) | 65.4% (15th) | 66.8% |
| Free-throw rate | 29.8% (13th) | 32.9% (5th) | 30.3% |
| Opponent eFG% | 48.5% (2nd) | 58.2% (17th) | 54.7% |
| Opponent TOV% | 17.4% (9th) | 17.0% (12th) | 16.9% |
| Opponent FTr | 33.9% (16th) | 33.3% (15th) | 30.4% |
Fenerbahce: Strengths: holds opponents to poor shooting. Weaknesses: poor shooting.
Baskonia: Strengths: gets to the line often. Weaknesses: poor shooting and turns the ball over a lot.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Fenerbahce offense | Baskonia defense | Baskonia offense | Fenerbahce defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 51.9% (17th) | 58.2% (17th) | 50.4% (20th) | 48.5% (2nd) |
| turnovers | 17.6% (10th) | 17.0% (12th) | 19.9% (20th) | 17.4% (9th) |
| offensive rebounds | 33.7% (11th) | 34.6% (15th) | 34.0% (10th) | 33.6% (13th) |
| free throws | 29.8% (13th) | 33.3% (15th) | 32.9% (5th) | 33.9% (16th) |
4. Shots and zones
Fenerbahce take 26% of their shots in the paint (league 30%) at 48% (league 47%), and Baskonia allow 54% there. That is Fenerbahce's biggest edge.
Baskonia take 15% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 82% (league 78%), and Fenerbahce allow 74% there. That is Baskonia's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Fenerbahce | 19% · 77% | 26% · 48% | 11% · 42% | 8% · 34% | 24% · 28% | 12% · 34% |
| Defense Baskonia | 16% · 82% | 38% · 54% | 9% · 35% | 1% · 63% | 28% · 37% | 8% · 41% |
| Offense Baskonia | 15% · 82% | 35% · 47% | 8% · 37% | 3% · 53% | 31% · 29% | 8% · 23% |
| Defense Fenerbahce | 18% · 74% | 28% · 42% | 15% · 41% | 5% · 32% | 24% · 29% | 10% · 28% |
| League | 17% · 78% | 30% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 40% | 26% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Fenerbahce: 7% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Baskonia: 6% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Fenerbahce · Shot chart Baskonia
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Fenerbahce
Best lineups
- Nicolo Melli, Will Clyburn, Shane Larkin, Shavon Shields, Wade Baldwin Iv: +15.8 net in 32 possessions
- Sertac Sanli, Shavon Shields, Trent Forrest, Talen Horton Tucker, Braxton Key: +3.9 net in 51 possessions
On/Off
- Wade Baldwin Iv: the team is +23.8 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Nicolo Melli: the team is +17.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Braxton Key: the team is 17.5 better with him off the court
Fenerbahce: +32.4 net in 25 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 31-23 in points.
Baskonia
Best lineups
- Matteo Spagnolo, Kenneth Faried, Dj Stewart, Kobi Simmons, A.J. Lawson: -13.7 net in 29 possessions
- Rodions Kurucs, Tadas Sedekerskis, Dj Stewart, Kobi Simmons, Chris Duarte: +44.2 net in 20 possessions
On/Off
- Rodions Kurucs: the team is +31.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Marcio Santos: the team is +25.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Dj Stewart: the team is 30.0 better with him off the court
Baskonia: -31.4 net in 19 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 16-22 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Fenerbahce
- Shavon Shields Forwards: 11.9 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.6 ast, 14.6 PIR
- Wade Baldwin Iv Guards: 11.7 pts, 3.1 reb, 4.9 ast, 13.8 PIR
- Talen Horton Tucker Guards: 10.6 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.1 ast, 11.1 PIR
- Will Clyburn Forwards: 10.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.6 ast, 10.1 PIR
Baskonia
- Tadas Sedekerskis Forwards: 10.1 pts, 4.7 reb, 0.3 ast, 13.0 PIR
- Kenneth Faried Centers: 8.7 pts, 5.9 reb, 0.7 ast, 12.9 PIR
- Chris Duarte Forwards: 10.7 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.8 ast, 11.7 PIR
- A.J. Lawson Forwards: 12.9 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.1 ast, 10.2 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Fenerbahce produce | Baskonia allow | Baskonia produce | Fenerbahce allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 35.4 | 44.2 | 15.1 | 28.8 |
| Forwards | 40.6 | 35.2 | 47.6 | 23.1 |
| Centers | 8.1 | 31.1 | 12.9 | 22.0 |
The most open matchup: Fenerbahce's guards (35.4 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 44.2 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Fenerbahce
- No known absences
Baskonia
- Rodions Kurucs: Has missed his team's last 2 games
- Chris Duarte: Has missed his team's last 3 games
- Tadas Sedekerskis: Has missed his team's last 2 games
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Fenerbahce 4, Baskonia 2.
- 2026-01-23: Fenerbahce – Baskonia 84-71
- 2026-01-02: Baskonia – Fenerbahce 93-108
- 2025-03-28: Fenerbahce – Baskonia 82-77
- 2024-12-03: Baskonia – Fenerbahce 88-76
- 2024-03-01: Fenerbahce – Baskonia 111-96
- 2023-12-06: Baskonia – Fenerbahce 80-79
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Fenerbahce 85% – Baskonia 15%, a score of about 88-78. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.