EuroLeague · Round 10 · Friday 6 November at 19:00
Besiktas vs Zalgiris: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 10)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Besiktas | Zalgiris | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 11th · 4-5 | 10th · 5-4 |
| Home / away | 1-3 / 3-2 | 2-2 / 3-2 |
| Form (5) | LWLLW | LLWWW |
| Points for / against | 90.0 / 91.8 | 85.9 / 84.0 |
| Net rating | -2.3 (11th) | +2.5 (10th) |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
Besiktas: L @ Hapoel Tel Aviv 82-100 · W vs Bayern Munich 95-87 · L @ Anadolu Efes 80-89 · L vs Olympiacos 73-81 · W @ Virtus Bologna 103-101
Zalgiris: L @ Fenerbahce 80-99 · L vs Anadolu Efes 70-85 · W vs ASVEL 105-85 · W @ Virtus Bologna 91-74 · W vs Partizan 87-80
Our model gives Besiktas 51%, with a projected score of 89-89, about 179 total points and a pace of 75.6 possessions. Confidence: low.
2. What will decide the game
- Zalgiris on defense, offensive rebounds: they rank 1st, while Besiktas's offense is 17th. Zalgiris can shut this down.
- Zalgiris on offense, free throws: they rank 7th in the league while Besiktas's defense ranks only 20th. A clear edge for Zalgiris.
- Zalgiris on defense, free throws: they rank 6th, while Besiktas's offense is 18th. Zalgiris can shut this down.
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Besiktas | Zalgiris | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 118.5 (7th) | 115.0 (10th) | 115.6 |
| Defensive rating | 120.9 (15th) | 112.5 (6th) | 115.6 |
| Pace (possessions) | 75.9 (8th) | 74.7 (12th) | 75.0 |
| eFG% | 57.7% (2nd) | 54.7% (13th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 60.9% (3rd) | 58.6% (12th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 43.2% | 39.4% | – |
| Assist rate | 61.6% (13th) | 65.1% (6th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 15.8% (8th) | 18.5% (16th) | 16.9% |
| OREB% | 29.3% (17th) | 36.1% (4th) | 33.2% |
| DREB% | 66.6% (12th) | 72.2% (1st) | 66.8% |
| Free-throw rate | 26.7% (18th) | 32.2% (7th) | 30.3% |
| Opponent eFG% | 56.4% (15th) | 53.0% (8th) | 54.7% |
| Opponent TOV% | 17.1% (10th) | 15.2% (17th) | 16.9% |
| Opponent FTr | 45.1% (20th) | 26.3% (6th) | 30.4% |
Besiktas: Strengths: efficient shooting. Weaknesses: rarely gets to the line and few offensive rebounds.
Zalgiris: Strengths: boxes out well and strong on second chances. Weaknesses: forces few turnovers and turns the ball over a lot.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Besiktas offense | Zalgiris defense | Zalgiris offense | Besiktas defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 57.7% (2nd) | 53.0% (8th) | 54.7% (13th) | 56.4% (15th) |
| turnovers | 15.8% (8th) | 15.2% (17th) | 18.5% (16th) | 17.1% (10th) |
| offensive rebounds | 29.3% (17th) | 27.8% (1st) | 36.1% (4th) | 33.4% (12th) |
| free throws | 26.7% (18th) | 26.3% (6th) | 32.2% (7th) | 45.1% (20th) |
4. Shots and zones
Besiktas take 30% of their shots wing threes (league 26%) at 44% (league 35%), and Zalgiris allow 30% there. That is Besiktas's biggest edge.
Zalgiris take 11% of their shots top-of-the-key threes (league 9%) at 39% (league 35%), and Besiktas allow 36% there. That is Zalgiris's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Besiktas | 15% · 85% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 40% | 5% · 46% | 30% · 44% | 9% · 24% |
| Defense Zalgiris | 20% · 79% | 29% · 46% | 14% · 44% | 4% · 41% | 25% · 30% | 8% · 33% |
| Offense Zalgiris | 18% · 71% | 33% · 44% | 10% · 30% | 6% · 63% | 23% · 37% | 11% · 39% |
| Defense Besiktas | 19% · 85% | 34% · 47% | 13% · 46% | 3% · 35% | 24% · 36% | 7% · 36% |
| League | 17% · 78% | 30% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 40% | 26% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Besiktas: 7% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Zalgiris: 5% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Besiktas · Shot chart Zalgiris
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Besiktas
Best lineups
- Berk Ugurlu, Ante Zizic, Anthony Brown, Conor Morgan, Jaylen Nowell: -10.3 net in 29 possessions
- Ante Zizic, Anthony Brown, Conor Morgan, Devon Dotson, Jaylen Nowell: +14.1 net in 28 possessions
On/Off
- Devon Dotson: the team is +23.7 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Wenyen Gabriel: the team is +16.4 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Berk Ugurlu: the team is 20.7 better with him off the court
Besiktas: +162.8 net in 9 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 23-9 in points.
Zalgiris
Best lineups
- Jonas Valanciunas, Arnas Butkevicius, Azuolas Tubelis, Carsen Edwards, Saben Lee: +3.7 net in 54 possessions
On/Off
- Marius Grigonis: the team is +23.0 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Maodo Lo: the team is +11.0 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Marek Blazevic: the team is 43.8 better with him off the court
Zalgiris: +27.1 net in 37 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 56-46 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Besiktas
- Ante Zizic Centers: 8.3 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.4 ast, 13.8 PIR
- Devon Dotson Guards: 9.7 pts, 1.9 reb, 3.7 ast, 12.9 PIR
- Scottie Wilbekin Guards: 14.8 pts, 1.6 reb, 3.1 ast, 12.7 PIR
- Jaylen Nowell Guards: 12.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.2 ast, 9.0 PIR
Zalgiris
- Jonas Valanciunas Centers: 12.1 pts, 8.1 reb, 2.0 ast, 19.3 PIR
- Azuolas Tubelis Forwards: 11.3 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.6 ast, 15.6 PIR
- Carsen Edwards Guards: 15.8 pts, 1.2 reb, 2.6 ast, 12.0 PIR
- Sterling Brown Guards: 11.0 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.0 ast, 11.0 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Besiktas produce | Zalgiris allow | Zalgiris produce | Besiktas allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 36.4 | 35.8 | 37.4 | 40.3 |
| Forwards | 10.9 | 36.6 | 33.0 | 42.6 |
| Centers | 35.9 | 14.4 | 20.3 | 20.7 |
The most open matchup: Zalgiris's guards (37.4 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 40.3 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Besiktas
- Furkan Korkmaz: Has missed his team's last 3 games
- Devon Dotson: Has missed his team's last 2 games
Zalgiris
- No known absences
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Besiktas 51% – Zalgiris 49%, a score of about 89-89. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.