EuroLeague · Round 10 · Wednesday 4 November at 21:45
Real Madrid vs Panathinaikos: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 10)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Real Madrid | Panathinaikos | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 4th · 6-3 | 1st · 7-2 |
| Home / away | 3-0 / 3-3 | 6-1 / 1-1 |
| Form (5) | WWWWW | WLWWL |
| Points for / against | 96.2 / 88.0 | 84.6 / 75.0 |
| Net rating | +10.6 (3rd) | +13.0 (1st) |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
Real Madrid: W @ Olimpia Milano 98-89 · W vs ASVEL 111-92 · W @ Maccabi Tel Aviv 113-99 · W @ Baskonia 104-86 · W vs Fenerbahce 95-76
Panathinaikos: W @ Partizan 72-55 · L vs Hapoel Tel Aviv 81-91 · W vs Baskonia 85-79 · W vs Olimpia Milano 80-75 · L @ Anadolu Efes 68-83
Our model gives Real Madrid 67%, with a projected score of 90-86, about 175 total points and a pace of 74.9 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Panathinaikos on offense, free throws: they rank 1st in the league while Real Madrid's defense ranks only 14th. A clear edge for Panathinaikos.
- Real Madrid on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 4th, while Panathinaikos's offense is 12th. Real Madrid can shut this down.
- Pace: Real Madrid play faster (77.9 possessions) than Panathinaikos (73.3). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 74.9.
- Absences: Nick Smith Jr (Real Madrid), Mikael Jantunen (Real Madrid), Facundo Campazzo (Real Madrid), Theo Maledon (Real Madrid).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Real Madrid | Panathinaikos | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 123.6 (2nd) | 115.4 (8th) | 115.6 |
| Defensive rating | 113.0 (8th) | 102.4 (1st) | 115.6 |
| Pace (possessions) | 77.9 (1st) | 73.3 (16th) | 75.0 |
| eFG% | 57.1% (5th) | 54.8% (12th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 61.8% (1st) | 58.7% (11th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 44.8% | 42.4% | – |
| Assist rate | 62.0% (11th) | 63.3% (9th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 15.6% (4th) | 18.5% (17th) | 16.9% |
| OREB% | 34.5% (9th) | 36.5% (3rd) | 33.2% |
| DREB% | 69.6% (3rd) | 66.8% (11th) | 66.8% |
| Free-throw rate | 31.2% (10th) | 35.5% (1st) | 30.3% |
| Opponent eFG% | 52.2% (4th) | 49.4% (3rd) | 54.7% |
| Opponent TOV% | 16.0% (15th) | 19.3% (2nd) | 16.9% |
| Opponent FTr | 33.3% (14th) | 26.3% (7th) | 30.4% |
Real Madrid: Strengths: boxes out well and protects the ball.
Panathinaikos: Strengths: gets to the line often and forces turnovers. Weaknesses: turns the ball over a lot.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Real Madrid offense | Panathinaikos defense | Panathinaikos offense | Real Madrid defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 57.1% (5th) | 49.4% (3rd) | 54.8% (12th) | 52.2% (4th) |
| turnovers | 15.6% (4th) | 19.3% (2nd) | 18.5% (17th) | 16.0% (15th) |
| offensive rebounds | 34.5% (9th) | 33.2% (11th) | 36.5% (3rd) | 30.4% (3rd) |
| free throws | 31.2% (10th) | 26.3% (7th) | 35.5% (1st) | 33.3% (14th) |
4. Shots and zones
Real Madrid take 13% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 88% (league 78%), and Panathinaikos allow 83% there. That is Real Madrid's biggest edge.
Panathinaikos take 17% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 73% (league 78%), and Real Madrid allow 89% there. That is Panathinaikos's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Real Madrid | 13% · 88% | 34% · 49% | 8% · 27% | 4% · 35% | 32% · 39% | 8% · 46% |
| Defense Panathinaikos | 17% · 83% | 31% · 43% | 9% · 41% | 10% · 29% | 25% · 28% | 9% · 29% |
| Offense Panathinaikos | 17% · 73% | 29% · 52% | 11% · 50% | 8% · 39% | 25% · 35% | 9% · 27% |
| Defense Real Madrid | 13% · 89% | 35% · 43% | 14% · 41% | 3% · 63% | 25% · 34% | 11% · 31% |
| League | 17% · 78% | 30% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 40% | 26% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Real Madrid: 4% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Panathinaikos: 8% of shots in transition and 8% on second chances. Shot chart Real Madrid · Shot chart Panathinaikos
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Real Madrid
Best lineups
- Gabriele Procida, Jaime Pradilla, Andres Feliz, Maksym Shulga, Damian Jones: +154.6 net in 2 possessions
On/Off
- Alberto Abalde: the team is +25.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Theo Maledon (out): the team is +24.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Facundo Campazzo (out): the team is 17.5 better with him off the court
Real Madrid: very few clutch minutes this season.
Panathinaikos
Best lineups
- Mathias Lessort, Isaac Bonga, Brancou Badio, Sylvain Francisco, Nigel Hayes-Davis: +46.1 net in 46 possessions
- Konstantinos Mitoglou, Eleftherios Mantzoukas, Guerschon Yabusele, Jerian Grant, Panagiotis Kalaitzakis: +34.9 net in 98 possessions
On/Off
- Juancho Hernangomez: the team is +23.4 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Brancou Badio: the team is +16.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Guerschon Yabusele: the team is 26.0 better with him off the court
Panathinaikos: 0.0 net in 23 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 28-28 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Real Madrid
- Walter Tavares Centers: 10.2 pts, 7.4 reb, 0.1 ast, 16.0 PIR
- Andres Feliz Guards: 12.1 pts, 3.1 reb, 3.6 ast, 12.9 PIR
- Chuma Okeke Centers: 7.3 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.1 ast, 9.4 PIR
- Alberto Abalde Forwards: 6.2 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.4 ast, 6.7 PIR
Panathinaikos
- Mathias Lessort Centers: 11.8 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.4 ast, 19.8 PIR
- Sylvain Francisco Guards: 13.2 pts, 2.2 reb, 4.8 ast, 13.8 PIR
- Nigel Hayes-Davis Forwards: 12.9 pts, 3.6 reb, 0.7 ast, 11.6 PIR
- Guerschon Yabusele Forwards: 9.0 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.2 ast, 10.1 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Real Madrid produce | Panathinaikos allow | Panathinaikos produce | Real Madrid allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 12.9 | 27.0 | 27.7 | 36.9 |
| Forwards | 18.3 | 28.6 | 38.4 | 30.2 |
| Centers | 30.4 | 14.3 | 22.6 | 16.9 |
The most open matchup: Panathinaikos's forwards (38.4 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 30.2 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Real Madrid
- Nick Smith Jr: Injured: Discomfort in the sole of the right foot
- Mikael Jantunen: Injured: Complete plantar fascia tear in the left foot, out 2-3 months · Expected back: January 2027
- Facundo Campazzo: Injured: Muscle injury, awaiting tests on its severity
- Theo Maledon: Injured: Right knee sprain, no timetable for his return
Panathinaikos
- Eleftherios Mantzoukas: Has missed his team's last 3 games
Real Madrid will be without players who took 31% of their recent minutes.
According to the model, each absence shifts the expected margin by: Theo Maledon 0.6 points · Facundo Campazzo 0.5 points.
8. Head-to-head
In their last 7 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Real Madrid 2, Panathinaikos 5.
- 2026-02-03: Panathinaikos – Real Madrid 82-81
- 2025-11-13: Real Madrid – Panathinaikos 77-87
- 2025-03-06: Panathinaikos – Real Madrid 85-70
- 2024-10-17: Real Madrid – Panathinaikos 90-86
- 2024-05-26: Real Madrid – Panathinaikos 80-95
- 2024-02-29: Real Madrid – Panathinaikos 86-97
- 2023-12-07: Panathinaikos – Real Madrid 78-90
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Real Madrid 67% – Panathinaikos 33%, a score of about 90-86. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.