EuroLeague · Round 12 · Tuesday 17 November at 22:00
Virtus Bologna vs Panathinaikos: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 12)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Virtus Bologna | Panathinaikos | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 16th · 4-7 | 2nd · 8-3 |
| Home / away | 2-3 / 2-4 | 6-2 / 2-1 |
| Form (5) | LLLLL | WWLWL |
| Points for / against | 86.1 / 90.7 | 86.4 / 78.5 |
| Net rating | -6.1 (16th) | +10.6 (2nd) |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
Virtus Bologna: L @ Hapoel Tel Aviv 81-90 · L vs Zalgiris 74-91 · L vs Besiktas 101-103 · L vs Dubai Basketball 75-93 · L @ Anadolu Efes 91-103
Panathinaikos: W vs Baskonia 85-79 · W vs Olimpia Milano 80-75 · L @ Anadolu Efes 68-83 · W @ Real Madrid 115-112 · L vs Barcelona 74-76
Our model gives Panathinaikos 68%, with a projected score of 85-89, about 175 total points and a pace of 74.9 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Panathinaikos on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 3rd, while Virtus Bologna's offense is 19th. Panathinaikos can shut this down.
- Panathinaikos on offense, offensive rebounds: they rank 3rd in the league while Virtus Bologna's defense ranks only 18th. A clear edge for Panathinaikos.
- Panathinaikos on offense, free throws: they rank 1st in the league while Virtus Bologna's defense ranks only 6th. A clear edge for Panathinaikos.
- Pace: Virtus Bologna play faster (76.1 possessions) than Panathinaikos (73.5). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 74.9.
- Absences: Nikolaos Rogkavopoulos (Panathinaikos).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Virtus Bologna | Panathinaikos | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 113.2 (13th) | 116.2 (7th) | 115.1 |
| Defensive rating | 119.3 (14th) | 105.6 (2nd) | 115.1 |
| Pace (possessions) | 76.1 (8th) | 73.5 (15th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 51.3% (19th) | 55.9% (8th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 55.9% (18th) | 59.6% (7th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 41.9% | 44.5% | – |
| Assist rate | 58.7% (17th) | 62.7% (10th) | 62.0% |
| Turnover % | 16.6% (8th) | 18.6% (16th) | 17.1% |
| OREB% | 35.5% (4th) | 35.7% (3rd) | 33.0% |
| DREB% | 64.4% (18th) | 68.2% (7th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 31.8% (6th) | 35.2% (1st) | 29.9% |
| Opponent eFG% | 54.5% (9th) | 50.8% (3rd) | 54.6% |
| Opponent TOV% | 15.2% (19th) | 18.7% (4th) | 17.1% |
| Opponent FTr | 26.2% (6th) | 28.3% (8th) | 29.9% |
Virtus Bologna: Strengths: strong on second chances. Weaknesses: poor shooting and forces few turnovers.
Panathinaikos: Strengths: gets to the line often and strong on second chances. Weaknesses: turns the ball over a lot.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Virtus Bologna offense | Panathinaikos defense | Panathinaikos offense | Virtus Bologna defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 51.3% (19th) | 50.8% (3rd) | 55.9% (8th) | 54.5% (9th) |
| turnovers | 16.6% (8th) | 18.7% (4th) | 18.6% (16th) | 15.2% (19th) |
| offensive rebounds | 35.5% (4th) | 31.8% (7th) | 35.7% (3rd) | 35.6% (18th) |
| free throws | 31.8% (6th) | 28.3% (8th) | 35.2% (1st) | 26.2% (6th) |
4. Shots and zones
Virtus Bologna take 15% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 84% (league 79%), and Panathinaikos allow 83% there. That is Virtus Bologna's biggest edge.
Panathinaikos take 28% of their shots wing threes (league 27%) at 35% (league 35%), and Virtus Bologna allow 40% there. That is Panathinaikos's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Virtus Bologna | 15% · 84% | 32% · 42% | 12% · 42% | 4% · 24% | 30% · 31% | 7% · 44% |
| Defense Panathinaikos | 16% · 83% | 32% · 45% | 8% · 42% | 9% · 28% | 27% · 29% | 9% · 32% |
| Offense Panathinaikos | 15% · 72% | 29% · 53% | 11% · 55% | 7% · 41% | 28% · 35% | 10% · 32% |
| Defense Virtus Bologna | 15% · 72% | 36% · 45% | 9% · 40% | 4% · 29% | 28% · 40% | 8% · 42% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Virtus Bologna: 7% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Panathinaikos: 7% of shots in transition and 8% on second chances. Shot chart Virtus Bologna · Shot chart Panathinaikos
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Virtus Bologna
Best lineups
- Marcus Carr, Aliou Diarra, Kessler Edwards, Wendell Moore, Trent Frazier: +24.9 net in 32 possessions
- Marcus Carr, Derrick Alston Jr., Aliou Diarra, Kessler Edwards, Wendell Moore: +4.3 net in 70 possessions
On/Off
- Aliou Diarra: the team is +18.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Rasheed Bello: the team is +12.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Daniel Hackett: the team is 25.8 better with him off the court
Virtus Bologna: -11.9 net in 42 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 54-59 in points.
Panathinaikos
Best lineups
- Brancou Badio, Konstantinos Mitoglou, Sylvain Francisco, Nigel Hayes-Davis, Juancho Hernangomez: +48.8 net in 37 possessions
- Mathias Lessort, Isaac Bonga, Brancou Badio, Sylvain Francisco, Nigel Hayes-Davis: +46.1 net in 46 possessions
On/Off
- Juancho Hernangomez: the team is +16.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Brancou Badio: the team is +14.7 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Guerschon Yabusele: the team is 21.8 better with him off the court
Panathinaikos: +8.7 net in 46 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 62-58 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Virtus Bologna
- Aliou Diarra Centers: 12.1 pts, 6.9 reb, 0.6 ast, 18.5 PIR
- Wendell Moore Guards: 11.5 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.1 ast, 11.0 PIR
- Marcus Carr Guards: 12.1 pts, 2.0 reb, 5.0 ast, 10.5 PIR
- Derrick Alston Jr. Forwards: 13.0 pts, 1.9 reb, 1.3 ast, 9.5 PIR
Panathinaikos
- Mathias Lessort Centers: 11.9 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.7 ast, 19.5 PIR
- Kendrick Nunn Guards: 20.0 pts, 2.6 reb, 3.2 ast, 18.8 PIR
- Sylvain Francisco Guards: 14.1 pts, 2.4 reb, 4.4 ast, 13.7 PIR
- Nigel Hayes-Davis Forwards: 11.0 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.2 ast, 10.6 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Virtus Bologna produce | Panathinaikos allow | Panathinaikos produce | Virtus Bologna allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 38.9 | 27.3 | 35.1 | 40.8 |
| Forwards | 22.5 | 31.9 | 38.3 | 36.8 |
| Centers | 28.4 | 18.3 | 21.8 | 21.4 |
The most open matchup: Panathinaikos's guards (35.1 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 40.8 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Virtus Bologna
- Tommaso Baldasso: Has missed his team's last 4 games
Panathinaikos
- Panagiotis Kalaitzakis: Has missed his team's last 2 games
- Nikolaos Rogkavopoulos: Injured: Hamstring, out since Round 5
- Eleftherios Mantzoukas: Has missed his team's last 5 games
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Virtus Bologna 1, Panathinaikos 5.
- 2026-01-08: Panathinaikos – Virtus Bologna 84-71
- 2025-10-24: Virtus Bologna – Panathinaikos 92-75
- 2025-01-03: Panathinaikos – Virtus Bologna 111-90
- 2024-11-15: Virtus Bologna – Panathinaikos 77-82
- 2024-03-29: Virtus Bologna – Panathinaikos 79-81
- 2023-11-17: Panathinaikos – Virtus Bologna 90-76
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Virtus Bologna 32% – Panathinaikos 68%, a score of about 85-89. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.