EuroLeague · Round 10 · Thursday 5 November at 21:30
Olimpia Milano vs Valencia Basket: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 10)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Olimpia Milano | Valencia Basket | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 19th · 1-8 | 5th · 6-3 |
| Home / away | 1-3 / 0-5 | 3-2 / 3-1 |
| Form (5) | LLLLL | LLWWL |
| Points for / against | 82.0 / 90.2 | 97.1 / 90.9 |
| Net rating | -11.2 (18th) | +8.0 (5th) |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
Olimpia Milano: L vs Real Madrid 89-98 · L vs Dubai Basketball 97-101 · L vs Barcelona 81-89 · L @ Panathinaikos 75-80 · L @ Olympiacos 78-84
Valencia Basket: L vs Olympiacos 97-102 · L vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 88-91 · W @ Paris Basketball 104-93 · W vs Fenerbahce 86-78 · L @ Barcelona 94-98
Our model gives Valencia Basket 75%, with a projected score of 86-93, about 179 total points and a pace of 75.4 possessions. Confidence: high.
2. What will decide the game
- Valencia Basket on offense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 8th in the league while Olimpia Milano's defense ranks only 19th. A clear edge for Valencia Basket.
- Valencia Basket on offense, turnovers: they rank 2nd in the league while Olimpia Milano's defense ranks only 13th. A clear edge for Valencia Basket.
- Valencia Basket on offense, free throws: they rank 8th in the league while Olimpia Milano's defense ranks only 19th. A clear edge for Valencia Basket.
- Pace: Valencia Basket play faster (77.0 possessions) than Olimpia Milano (73.2). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 75.4.
- Absences: Nathan Reuvers (Valencia Basket).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Olimpia Milano | Valencia Basket | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 112.0 (16th) | 124.4 (1st) | 115.6 |
| Defensive rating | 123.3 (18th) | 116.4 (10th) | 115.6 |
| Pace (possessions) | 73.2 (17th) | 77.0 (4th) | 75.0 |
| eFG% | 52.2% (16th) | 55.9% (8th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 57.1% (15th) | 59.6% (10th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 44.4% | 39.8% | – |
| Assist rate | 64.8% (7th) | 57.1% (17th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 18.8% (18th) | 13.2% (2nd) | 16.9% |
| OREB% | 34.9% (6th) | 34.8% (7th) | 33.2% |
| DREB% | 67.1% (9th) | 70.3% (2nd) | 66.8% |
| Free-throw rate | 31.3% (9th) | 31.4% (8th) | 30.3% |
| Opponent eFG% | 60.1% (19th) | 56.3% (14th) | 54.7% |
| Opponent TOV% | 16.7% (13th) | 15.1% (18th) | 16.9% |
| Opponent FTr | 34.3% (19th) | 25.4% (4th) | 30.4% |
Olimpia Milano: Weaknesses: allows easy shots and turns the ball over a lot.
Valencia Basket: Strengths: protects the ball and boxes out well. Weaknesses: forces few turnovers.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Olimpia Milano offense | Valencia Basket defense | Valencia Basket offense | Olimpia Milano defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 52.2% (16th) | 56.3% (14th) | 55.9% (8th) | 60.1% (19th) |
| turnovers | 18.8% (18th) | 15.1% (18th) | 13.2% (2nd) | 16.7% (13th) |
| offensive rebounds | 34.9% (6th) | 29.7% (2nd) | 34.8% (7th) | 32.9% (9th) |
| free throws | 31.3% (9th) | 25.4% (4th) | 31.4% (8th) | 34.3% (19th) |
4. Shots and zones
Olimpia Milano take 27% of their shots wing threes (league 26%) at 38% (league 35%), and Valencia Basket allow 32% there. That is Olimpia Milano's biggest edge.
Valencia Basket take 26% of their shots wing threes (league 26%) at 35% (league 35%), and Olimpia Milano allow 40% there. That is Valencia Basket's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Olimpia Milano | 17% · 80% | 26% · 42% | 12% · 38% | 7% · 28% | 27% · 38% | 10% · 29% |
| Defense Valencia Basket | 24% · 72% | 25% · 49% | 9% · 42% | 8% · 50% | 27% · 32% | 7% · 37% |
| Offense Valencia Basket | 22% · 70% | 28% · 45% | 10% · 44% | 5% · 52% | 26% · 35% | 9% · 43% |
| Defense Olimpia Milano | 21% · 83% | 26% · 51% | 12% · 43% | 5% · 46% | 26% · 40% | 10% · 37% |
| League | 17% · 78% | 30% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 40% | 26% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Olimpia Milano: 5% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Valencia Basket: 7% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Olimpia Milano · Shot chart Valencia Basket
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Olimpia Milano
Best lineups
- Alec Peters, Leandro Bolmaro, Devon Hall, Moses Wright, Rj Cole: +8.6 net in 35 possessions
- Marko Guduric, Devin Booker, Leandro Bolmaro, Darius Thompson, Jason Burnell: -3.1 net in 32 possessions
On/Off
- Devin Booker: the team is +21.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Leandro Bolmaro: the team is +16.8 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Moses Wright: the team is 17.0 better with him off the court
Olimpia Milano: -44.0 net in 32 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 28-42 in points.
Valencia Basket
Best lineups
- Neal Sako, Dylan Osetkowski, Kameron Taylor, Tj Shorts, Armoni Brooks: +31.0 net in 36 possessions
On/Off
- Tj Shorts: the team is +31.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Armoni Brooks: the team is +28.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Gonzalo Corbalan: the team is 36.7 better with him off the court
Valencia Basket: -18.4 net in 49 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 54-63 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Olimpia Milano
- Moses Wright Centers: 12.8 pts, 5.7 reb, 0.9 ast, 15.4 PIR
- Devon Hall Guards: 9.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 4.2 ast, 11.1 PIR
- Alec Peters Forwards: 9.5 pts, 4.0 reb, 0.9 ast, 10.5 PIR
- Rj Cole Guards: 9.3 pts, 2.0 reb, 2.9 ast, 9.6 PIR
Valencia Basket
- Tj Shorts Guards: 17.1 pts, 1.8 reb, 5.7 ast, 20.7 PIR
- Nikola Mirotic Forwards: 13.0 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.9 ast, 15.0 PIR
- Armoni Brooks Guards: 14.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.3 ast, 13.4 PIR
- Kameron Taylor Forwards: 11.3 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.1 ast, 10.7 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Olimpia Milano produce | Valencia Basket allow | Valencia Basket produce | Olimpia Milano allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 42.4 | 41.0 | 47.4 | 36.1 |
| Forwards | 17.7 | 37.4 | 39.8 | 39.2 |
| Centers | 21.9 | 17.9 | 9.7 | 20.4 |
The most open matchup: Valencia Basket's guards (47.4 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 36.1 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Olimpia Milano
- No known absences
Valencia Basket
- Nathan Reuvers: Injured: Foot
8. Head-to-head
In their last 4 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Olimpia Milano 1, Valencia Basket 3.
- 2026-04-07: Valencia Basket – Olimpia Milano 102-96
- 2025-10-23: Olimpia Milano – Valencia Basket 100-103
- 2024-01-19: Valencia Basket – Olimpia Milano 84-72
- 2023-11-09: Olimpia Milano – Valencia Basket 83-52
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Olimpia Milano 25% – Valencia Basket 75%, a score of about 86-93. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.