EuroLeague · Round 12 · Tuesday 17 November at 21:30
Olimpia Milano vs Crvena Zvezda: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 12)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Olimpia Milano | Crvena Zvezda | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 19th · 1-10 | 6th · 7-4 |
| Home / away | 1-5 / 0-5 | 4-2 / 3-2 |
| Form (5) | LLLLL | LWWWL |
| Points for / against | 81.3 / 89.3 | 83.3 / 77.7 |
| Net rating | -10.8 (18th) | +7.5 (5th) |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
Olimpia Milano: L vs Barcelona 81-89 · L @ Panathinaikos 75-80 · L @ Olympiacos 78-84 · L vs Valencia Basket 73-84 · L vs Zalgiris 83-86
Crvena Zvezda: L @ Partizan 82-85 · W vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 100-78 · W vs Bayern Munich 103-73 · W @ Olympiacos 62-57 · L @ Real Madrid 84-105
Our model gives Crvena Zvezda 72%, with a projected score of 83-89, about 172 total points and a pace of 74.4 possessions. Confidence: high.
2. What will decide the game
- Crvena Zvezda on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 1st, while Olimpia Milano's offense is 17th. Crvena Zvezda can shut this down.
- Crvena Zvezda on defense, turnovers: they rank 3rd, while Olimpia Milano's offense is 18th. Crvena Zvezda can shut this down.
- Crvena Zvezda on offense, offensive rebounds: they rank 11th in the league while Olimpia Milano's defense ranks only 17th. A clear edge for Crvena Zvezda.
- Absences: Devin Booker (Olimpia Milano), Stefan Miljenovic (Crvena Zvezda).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Olimpia Milano | Crvena Zvezda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 109.8 (18th) | 112.1 (17th) | 115.1 |
| Defensive rating | 120.6 (17th) | 104.6 (1st) | 115.1 |
| Pace (possessions) | 74.0 (14th) | 73.5 (16th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 51.8% (17th) | 52.9% (16th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 56.6% (15th) | 56.3% (17th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 44.5% | 42.6% | – |
| Assist rate | 64.8% (7th) | 69.9% (1st) | 62.0% |
| Turnover % | 19.2% (18th) | 17.4% (11th) | 17.1% |
| OREB% | 32.6% (12th) | 33.9% (11th) | 33.0% |
| DREB% | 64.9% (17th) | 65.3% (16th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 30.5% (10th) | 26.8% (17th) | 29.9% |
| Opponent eFG% | 58.9% (18th) | 48.3% (1st) | 54.6% |
| Opponent TOV% | 18.1% (7th) | 18.8% (3rd) | 17.1% |
| Opponent FTr | 31.6% (14th) | 30.2% (10th) | 29.9% |
Olimpia Milano: Weaknesses: turns the ball over a lot and allows easy shots.
Crvena Zvezda: Strengths: holds opponents to poor shooting and forces turnovers. Weaknesses: rarely gets to the line and poor shooting.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Olimpia Milano offense | Crvena Zvezda defense | Crvena Zvezda offense | Olimpia Milano defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 51.8% (17th) | 48.3% (1st) | 52.9% (16th) | 58.9% (18th) |
| turnovers | 19.2% (18th) | 18.8% (3rd) | 17.4% (11th) | 18.1% (7th) |
| offensive rebounds | 32.6% (12th) | 34.7% (16th) | 33.9% (11th) | 35.1% (17th) |
| free throws | 30.5% (10th) | 30.2% (10th) | 26.8% (17th) | 31.6% (14th) |
4. Shots and zones
Olimpia Milano take 28% of their shots wing threes (league 27%) at 39% (league 35%), and Crvena Zvezda allow 31% there. That is Olimpia Milano's biggest edge.
Crvena Zvezda take 11% of their shots top-of-the-key threes (league 9%) at 43% (league 35%), and Olimpia Milano allow 38% there. That is Crvena Zvezda's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Olimpia Milano | 18% · 79% | 26% · 40% | 12% · 35% | 7% · 32% | 28% · 39% | 10% · 25% |
| Defense Crvena Zvezda | 14% · 73% | 33% · 45% | 9% · 35% | 5% · 31% | 28% · 31% | 11% · 29% |
| Offense Crvena Zvezda | 15% · 71% | 32% · 45% | 11% · 47% | 7% · 35% | 25% · 34% | 11% · 43% |
| Defense Olimpia Milano | 22% · 79% | 27% · 48% | 11% · 43% | 5% · 40% | 25% · 40% | 10% · 38% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Olimpia Milano: 5% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Crvena Zvezda: 8% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Shot chart Olimpia Milano · Shot chart Crvena Zvezda
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Olimpia Milano
Best lineups
- Alec Peters, Leandro Bolmaro, Devon Hall, Moses Wright, Rj Cole: 0.0 net in 36 possessions
- Marko Guduric, Alec Peters, Darius Thompson, Devon Hall, Moses Wright: -15.4 net in 72 possessions
On/Off
- Devin Booker (out): the team is +21.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Leandro Bolmaro: the team is +18.4 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Moses Wright: the team is 21.9 better with him off the court
Olimpia Milano: -46.8 net in 41 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 38-57 in points.
Crvena Zvezda
Best lineups
- Chris Jones, Tyson Carter, Chima Moneke, Jordan Nwora, Christian Koloko: +20.8 net in 62 possessions
On/Off
- Ognjen Dobric: the team is +15.4 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Christian Koloko: the team is +14.8 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Johnathan Motley: the team is 33.0 better with him off the court
Crvena Zvezda: +27.3 net in 51 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 63-49 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Olimpia Milano
- Moses Wright Centers: 11.5 pts, 5.3 reb, 0.9 ast, 13.1 PIR
- Devon Hall Guards: 9.4 pts, 2.5 reb, 3.9 ast, 10.5 PIR
- Rj Cole Guards: 9.4 pts, 1.9 reb, 2.9 ast, 9.5 PIR
- Alec Peters Forwards: 8.6 pts, 3.8 reb, 0.9 ast, 9.3 PIR
Crvena Zvezda
- Jordan Nwora Forwards: 14.7 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.3 ast, 15.4 PIR
- Chris Jones Guards: 8.8 pts, 2.5 reb, 5.4 ast, 13.3 PIR
- Chima Moneke Forwards: 9.6 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.6 ast, 12.5 PIR
- Christian Koloko Centers: 7.0 pts, 2.5 reb, 0.8 ast, 10.8 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Olimpia Milano produce | Crvena Zvezda allow | Crvena Zvezda produce | Olimpia Milano allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 43.4 | 27.5 | 36.3 | 39.6 |
| Forwards | 15.9 | 36.0 | 48.7 | 38.3 |
| Centers | 16.7 | 17.3 | 4.9 | 22.6 |
The most open matchup: Crvena Zvezda's forwards (48.7 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 38.3 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Olimpia Milano
- Devin Booker: Injured: Rectus femoris tendon rupture in the right leg, out about 3 months · Expected back: January 2027
Crvena Zvezda
- Johnathan Motley: Doubtful: Viral illness, doubtful against Real Madrid
- Stefan Miljenovic: Injured: Ankle surgery
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Olimpia Milano 4, Crvena Zvezda 2.
- 2026-01-15: Olimpia Milano – Crvena Zvezda 96-104
- 2025-09-30: Crvena Zvezda – Olimpia Milano 82-92
- 2025-03-13: Crvena Zvezda – Olimpia Milano 80-82
- 2024-12-04: Olimpia Milano – Crvena Zvezda 101-86
- 2024-01-11: Olimpia Milano – Crvena Zvezda 62-76
- 2023-11-24: Crvena Zvezda – Olimpia Milano 71-93
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Olimpia Milano 28% – Crvena Zvezda 72%, a score of about 83-89. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.