EuroLeague · Round 12 · Tuesday 17 November at 20:00
Fenerbahce vs ASVEL: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 12)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Fenerbahce | ASVEL | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 7th · 7-4 | 15th · 4-7 |
| Home / away | 6-0 / 1-4 | 3-4 / 1-3 |
| Form (5) | WLLWL | LWWLL |
| Points for / against | 82.9 / 78.6 | 88.5 / 93.2 |
| Net rating | +5.8 (6th) | -6.0 (15th) |
| Rest days | 6 | 4 |
Fenerbahce: W @ Olympiacos 64-61 · L @ Valencia Basket 78-86 · L @ Real Madrid 76-95 · W vs Baskonia 84-65 · L @ Paris Basketball 109-111
ASVEL: L @ Zalgiris 85-105 · W vs Partizan 82-75 · W vs Baskonia 94-79 · L vs Bayern Munich 95-99 · L vs Besiktas 91-95
Our model gives Fenerbahce 85%, with a projected score of 89-77, about 166 total points and a pace of 74.7 possessions. Confidence: high.
2. What will decide the game
- Fenerbahce on offense, offensive rebounds: they rank 7th in the league while ASVEL's defense ranks only 20th. A clear edge for Fenerbahce.
- ASVEL on defense, turnovers: they rank 5th, while Fenerbahce's offense is 13th. ASVEL can shut this down.
- Fenerbahce on defense, turnovers: they rank 9th, while ASVEL's offense is 15th. Fenerbahce can shut this down.
- Pace: ASVEL play faster (76.7 possessions) than Fenerbahce (73.0). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 74.7.
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Fenerbahce | ASVEL | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 112.2 (15th) | 115.4 (10th) | 115.1 |
| Defensive rating | 106.5 (3rd) | 121.5 (18th) | 115.1 |
| Pace (possessions) | 73.0 (18th) | 76.7 (4th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 52.9% (15th) | 58.4% (2nd) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 56.6% (16th) | 61.4% (2nd) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 41.8% | 41.1% | – |
| Assist rate | 59.6% (13th) | 67.8% (4th) | 62.0% |
| Turnover % | 17.8% (13th) | 18.5% (15th) | 17.1% |
| OREB% | 34.7% (7th) | 28.7% (18th) | 33.0% |
| DREB% | 67.2% (12th) | 59.6% (20th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 28.4% (14th) | 28.8% (13th) | 29.9% |
| Opponent eFG% | 48.7% (2nd) | 58.2% (17th) | 54.6% |
| Opponent TOV% | 17.1% (9th) | 18.6% (5th) | 17.1% |
| Opponent FTr | 33.5% (18th) | 30.8% (11th) | 29.9% |
Fenerbahce: Strengths: holds opponents to poor shooting.
ASVEL: Strengths: efficient shooting and forces turnovers. Weaknesses: concedes second chances and few offensive rebounds.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Fenerbahce offense | ASVEL defense | ASVEL offense | Fenerbahce defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 52.9% (15th) | 58.2% (17th) | 58.4% (2nd) | 48.7% (2nd) |
| turnovers | 17.8% (13th) | 18.6% (5th) | 18.5% (15th) | 17.1% (9th) |
| offensive rebounds | 34.7% (7th) | 40.4% (20th) | 28.7% (18th) | 32.8% (12th) |
| free throws | 28.4% (14th) | 30.8% (11th) | 28.8% (13th) | 33.5% (18th) |
4. Shots and zones
Fenerbahce take 28% of their shots in the paint (league 31%) at 47% (league 47%), and ASVEL allow 55% there. That is Fenerbahce's biggest edge.
ASVEL take 8% of their shots corner threes (league 6%) at 53% (league 39%), and Fenerbahce allow 30% there. That is ASVEL's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Fenerbahce | 19% · 79% | 28% · 47% | 11% · 43% | 6% · 35% | 25% · 30% | 10% · 33% |
| Defense ASVEL | 21% · 71% | 27% · 55% | 8% · 35% | 7% · 44% | 30% · 36% | 7% · 44% |
| Offense ASVEL | 18% · 72% | 26% · 53% | 15% · 42% | 8% · 53% | 25% · 42% | 8% · 31% |
| Defense Fenerbahce | 18% · 74% | 28% · 42% | 14% · 42% | 6% · 30% | 25% · 29% | 9% · 30% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Fenerbahce: 7% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. ASVEL: 8% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Fenerbahce · Shot chart ASVEL
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Fenerbahce
Best lineups
- Nicolo Melli, Will Clyburn, Shane Larkin, Shavon Shields, Wade Baldwin Iv: +15.8 net in 32 possessions
- Shavon Shields, Trent Forrest, Marcus Bingham, Talen Horton Tucker, Braxton Key: +6.7 net in 45 possessions
On/Off
- Wade Baldwin Iv: the team is +21.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Nicolo Melli: the team is +15.9 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Marcus Bingham: the team is 11.2 better with him off the court
Fenerbahce: +20.5 net in 44 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 57-48 in points.
ASVEL
Best lineups
- Joel Bolomboy, Both Gach, Hugo Besson, Tremont Waters, Jae Crowder: +9.9 net in 80 possessions
- Joel Bolomboy, Both Gach, Tyty Washington Jr, Patty Mills, Jae Crowder: -2.4 net in 41 possessions
On/Off
- Tyty Washington Jr: the team is +20.9 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Patty Mills: the team is +19.9 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Both Gach: the team is 28.8 better with him off the court
ASVEL: +11.8 net in 51 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 59-53 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Fenerbahce
- Talen Horton Tucker Guards: 13.3 pts, 4.2 reb, 2.3 ast, 14.1 PIR
- Wade Baldwin Iv Guards: 12.3 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.5 ast, 13.8 PIR
- Shavon Shields Forwards: 11.5 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.7 ast, 13.2 PIR
- Will Clyburn Forwards: 10.2 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.6 ast, 10.1 PIR
ASVEL
- Patty Mills Guards: 15.6 pts, 0.6 reb, 1.9 ast, 13.4 PIR
- Hugo Besson Guards: 11.2 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.7 ast, 11.9 PIR
- Tyty Washington Jr Guards: 9.3 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.0 ast, 11.7 PIR
- Tremont Waters Guards: 10.9 pts, 1.5 reb, 3.5 ast, 11.6 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Fenerbahce produce | ASVEL allow | ASVEL produce | Fenerbahce allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 39.5 | 36.5 | 45.5 | 30.7 |
| Forwards | 40.0 | 38.8 | 37.5 | 24.2 |
| Centers | 10.1 | 27.5 | 9.4 | 23.3 |
The most open matchup: Fenerbahce's forwards (40.0 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 38.8 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Fenerbahce
- Sertac Sanli: Has missed his team's last 2 games
ASVEL
- Myles Cale: Has missed his team's last 4 games
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Fenerbahce 6, ASVEL 0.
- 2026-04-16: ASVEL – Fenerbahce 76-81
- 2025-11-06: Fenerbahce – ASVEL 81-67
- 2025-03-13: Fenerbahce – ASVEL 92-82
- 2024-11-08: ASVEL – Fenerbahce 73-77
- 2024-01-30: ASVEL – Fenerbahce 73-83
- 2023-10-19: Fenerbahce – ASVEL 101-86
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Fenerbahce 85% – ASVEL 15%, a score of about 89-77. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.