EuroLeague · Round 10 · Thursday 5 November at 19:15
Anadolu Efes vs Paris Basketball: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 10)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Anadolu Efes | Paris Basketball | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 14th · 4-5 | 16th · 3-6 |
| Home / away | 3-1 / 1-4 | 1-4 / 2-2 |
| Form (5) | LWWLW | LLLWW |
| Points for / against | 83.6 / 86.2 | 88.3 / 92.9 |
| Net rating | -3.5 (14th) | -5.9 (15th) |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
Anadolu Efes: L vs Bayern Munich 93-101 · W @ Zalgiris 85-70 · W vs Besiktas 89-80 · L @ Hapoel Tel Aviv 88-118 · W vs Panathinaikos 83-68
Paris Basketball: L vs Virtus Bologna 94-96 · L @ Crvena Zvezda 81-90 · L vs Valencia Basket 93-104 · W @ Dubai Basketball 99-93 · W @ Maccabi Tel Aviv 99-94
Our model gives Anadolu Efes 63%, with a projected score of 90-87, about 178 total points and a pace of 78.0 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Anadolu Efes on defense, free throws: they rank 2nd, while Paris Basketball's offense is 20th. Anadolu Efes can shut this down.
- Paris Basketball on defense, turnovers: they rank 7th, while Anadolu Efes's offense is 15th. Paris Basketball can shut this down.
- Anadolu Efes on defense, turnovers: they rank 5th, while Paris Basketball's offense is 12th. Anadolu Efes can shut this down.
- Absences: Pj Dozier (Anadolu Efes).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Anadolu Efes | Paris Basketball | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 109.3 (18th) | 114.5 (12th) | 115.6 |
| Defensive rating | 112.8 (7th) | 120.4 (14th) | 115.6 |
| Pace (possessions) | 76.5 (5th) | 77.2 (3rd) | 75.0 |
| eFG% | 52.5% (14th) | 55.3% (11th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 57.6% (13th) | 57.3% (14th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 38.8% | 48.3% | – |
| Assist rate | 65.2% (5th) | 61.4% (14th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 18.3% (15th) | 17.9% (12th) | 16.9% |
| OREB% | 27.8% (20th) | 35.8% (5th) | 33.2% |
| DREB% | 68.4% (7th) | 61.9% (19th) | 66.8% |
| Free-throw rate | 32.8% (6th) | 21.1% (20th) | 30.3% |
| Opponent eFG% | 55.4% (11th) | 56.2% (13th) | 54.7% |
| Opponent TOV% | 18.3% (5th) | 17.7% (7th) | 16.9% |
| Opponent FTr | 25.2% (2nd) | 32.5% (12th) | 30.4% |
Anadolu Efes: Strengths: forces turnovers. Weaknesses: few offensive rebounds.
Paris Basketball: Strengths: strong on second chances. Weaknesses: rarely gets to the line and concedes second chances.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Anadolu Efes offense | Paris Basketball defense | Paris Basketball offense | Anadolu Efes defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 52.5% (14th) | 56.2% (13th) | 55.3% (11th) | 55.4% (11th) |
| turnovers | 18.3% (15th) | 17.7% (7th) | 17.9% (12th) | 18.3% (5th) |
| offensive rebounds | 27.8% (20th) | 38.1% (19th) | 35.8% (5th) | 31.6% (7th) |
| free throws | 32.8% (6th) | 32.5% (12th) | 21.1% (20th) | 25.2% (2nd) |
4. Shots and zones
Anadolu Efes take 29% of their shots in the paint (league 30%) at 42% (league 47%), and Paris Basketball allow 53% there. That is Anadolu Efes's biggest edge.
Paris Basketball take 32% of their shots in the paint (league 30%) at 51% (league 47%), and Anadolu Efes allow 48% there. That is Paris Basketball's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Anadolu Efes | 21% · 81% | 29% · 42% | 11% · 39% | 6% · 32% | 25% · 30% | 8% · 37% |
| Defense Paris Basketball | 14% · 76% | 35% · 53% | 11% · 43% | 6% · 29% | 27% · 40% | 7% · 35% |
| Offense Paris Basketball | 13% · 84% | 32% · 51% | 7% · 48% | 7% · 36% | 34% · 35% | 8% · 32% |
| Defense Anadolu Efes | 16% · 76% | 30% · 48% | 11% · 45% | 8% · 37% | 23% · 38% | 12% · 34% |
| League | 17% · 78% | 30% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 40% | 26% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Anadolu Efes: 8% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Paris Basketball: 7% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Anadolu Efes · Shot chart Paris Basketball
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Anadolu Efes
Best lineups
- Dario Saric, Mike James, Matthew Strazel, Collin Malcolm, Bruno Fernando: +28.0 net in 46 possessions
- Dario Saric, Matthew Strazel, Collin Malcolm, Bruno Fernando, Cameron Payne: +13.2 net in 38 possessions
On/Off
- Mike James: the team is +31.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Daron Russell: the team is +28.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Collin Malcolm: the team is 11.1 better with him off the court
Anadolu Efes: -21.6 net in 28 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 29-35 in points.
Paris Basketball
Best lineups
- Daulton Hommes, Mouhamed Faye, Terry Tarpey, Sebastian Herrera, Tyson Etienne: -9.3 net in 32 possessions
On/Off
- Nadir Hifi: the team is +48.8 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Terry Tarpey: the team is +45.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Joel Ayayi: the team is 50.5 better with him off the court
Paris Basketball: +29.2 net in 34 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 48-38 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Anadolu Efes
- Dario Saric Forwards: 11.6 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.8 ast, 14.9 PIR
- Collin Malcolm Forwards: 9.4 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.9 ast, 12.1 PIR
- Matthew Strazel Guards: 11.6 pts, 1.4 reb, 4.0 ast, 11.8 PIR
- Cameron Payne Guards: 15.0 pts, 0.8 reb, 4.0 ast, 11.2 PIR
Paris Basketball
- Nadir Hifi Guards: 21.2 pts, 1.7 reb, 2.7 ast, 17.5 PIR
- Tj Warren Forwards: 13.0 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.0 ast, 11.4 PIR
- Allan Dokossi Centers: 6.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.2 ast, 11.0 PIR
- Jared Rhoden Guards: 13.1 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.4 ast, 10.9 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Anadolu Efes produce | Paris Basketball allow | Paris Basketball produce | Anadolu Efes allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 30.1 | 44.2 | 46.3 | 45.2 |
| Forwards | 33.6 | 38.8 | 20.8 | 23.4 |
| Centers | 17.2 | 20.1 | 20.9 | 18.7 |
The most open matchup: Paris Basketball's guards (46.3 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 45.2 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Anadolu Efes
- Pj Dozier: Injured: Back, out 1-2 weeks · Expected back: 13 November
Paris Basketball
- Tj Warren: Has missed his team's last 4 games
8. Head-to-head
In their last 4 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Anadolu Efes 1, Paris Basketball 3.
- 2026-01-07: Anadolu Efes – Paris Basketball 79-84
- 2025-10-28: Paris Basketball – Anadolu Efes 80-90
- 2025-01-14: Paris Basketball – Anadolu Efes 88-84
- 2024-11-21: Anadolu Efes – Paris Basketball 84-93
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Anadolu Efes 63% – Paris Basketball 37%, a score of about 90-87. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.