Round 12 · Parlay
EuroLeague Round 12 parlay
Our model's 3 most confident calls for Round 12 of the EuroLeague 2026-27. Chance that all of them land: 41% (fair combined odds 2.42).
Tue 17/11, 20:00
Zalgiris – Bayern Munich
Pick: win Zalgiris · probability 79% · fair odds 1.27
- Zalgiris 7-4 (form WWWWW), Bayern Munich 3-8 (form LLLWL) before the round.
- Projected score 92-83, with home court for the favourite.
- Injured: Zalgiris: Nigel Williams-Goss.
Tue 17/11, 20:00
Fenerbahce – ASVEL
Pick: win Fenerbahce · probability 75% · fair odds 1.33
- Fenerbahce 7-4 (form WLLWL), ASVEL 4-7 (form LWWLL) before the round.
- Projected score 89-82, with home court for the favourite.
Tue 17/11, 21:30
Barcelona – Paris Basketball
Pick: win Barcelona · probability 70% · fair odds 1.43
- Barcelona 8-3 (form WWWWW), Paris Basketball 5-6 (form LWWWW) before the round.
- Projected score 93-88, with home court for the favourite.
- Injured: Barcelona: Tosan Evbuomwan, Kevin Punter.
Is there value?
Fair odds 2.42. For value you need odds of at least 2.55: above fair plus a 5% margin, because the model makes mistakes too.
Enter the odds you found (per game or total) to see if there is value.
Licensed bookmakers’ odds
| Bookmaker | Parlay odds | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetFair Exchange | 1.83 | −24.6% | No value |
| 888Sport | 1.81 | −25.5% | No value |
Odds updated: 14/11, 15:41 · Odds change: always check the current price.
How it is calculated
Expected value (EV) = probability × odds − 1. Example: 41% probability at odds 2.55 gives EV +5.0%, i.e. +5 cents per 1€ in the long run, if the model’s probability is right. Parlay odds are the product of the games’ odds. Value does not mean the parlay will win: it means the price is better than the model thinks it is worth.
So far: 4 of 9 parlays won and 21 of 27 picks (the model expected 20.9). Full record →
“Fair odds” are 1 divided by the model’s probability: if you find higher odds (with a safety margin), the pick has value according to the model.
These are statistical estimates, not betting advice. Betting is for adults only (21+ in Greece, 18+ in most countries). Please gamble responsibly.