EuroLeague · Round 12 · Tuesday 17 November at 20:00
Zalgiris vs Bayern Munich: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 12)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Zalgiris | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 8th · 7-4 | 18th · 3-8 |
| Home / away | 2-2 / 5-2 | 0-4 / 3-4 |
| Form (5) | WWWWW | LLLWL |
| Points for / against | 85.6 / 82.4 | 86.8 / 95.2 |
| Net rating | +4.3 (7th) | -11.0 (19th) |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
Zalgiris: W vs ASVEL 105-85 · W @ Virtus Bologna 91-74 · W vs Partizan 87-80 · W @ Besiktas 83-67 · W @ Olimpia Milano 86-83
Bayern Munich: L vs Dubai Basketball 91-107 · L vs Barcelona 84-88 · L @ Crvena Zvezda 73-103 · W @ ASVEL 99-95 · L @ Valencia Basket 87-102
Our model gives Zalgiris 80%, with a projected score of 92-81, about 174 total points and a pace of 75.5 possessions. Confidence: high.
2. What will decide the game
- Zalgiris on defense, offensive rebounds: they rank 1st, while Bayern Munich's offense is 14th. Zalgiris can shut this down.
- Zalgiris on offense, offensive rebounds: they rank 2nd in the league while Bayern Munich's defense ranks only 14th. A clear edge for Zalgiris.
- Zalgiris on offense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 13th in the league while Bayern Munich's defense ranks only 20th. A clear edge for Zalgiris.
- Absences: Nigel Williams-Goss (Zalgiris).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Zalgiris | Bayern Munich | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 113.7 (12th) | 114.6 (11th) | 115.1 |
| Defensive rating | 109.4 (6th) | 125.6 (20th) | 115.1 |
| Pace (possessions) | 75.3 (11th) | 75.8 (10th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 54.0% (13th) | 56.1% (7th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 58.2% (13th) | 60.5% (3rd) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 38.8% | 39.7% | – |
| Assist rate | 64.1% (8th) | 65.0% (6th) | 62.0% |
| Turnover % | 18.7% (17th) | 19.4% (19th) | 17.1% |
| OREB% | 36.1% (2nd) | 32.1% (14th) | 33.0% |
| DREB% | 73.3% (1st) | 66.5% (14th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 33.0% (3rd) | 31.5% (7th) | 29.9% |
| Opponent eFG% | 51.7% (4th) | 60.4% (20th) | 54.6% |
| Opponent TOV% | 15.7% (17th) | 15.7% (16th) | 17.1% |
| Opponent FTr | 25.7% (3rd) | 27.9% (7th) | 29.9% |
Zalgiris: Strengths: boxes out well and strong on second chances. Weaknesses: turns the ball over a lot and forces few turnovers.
Bayern Munich: Weaknesses: allows easy shots and turns the ball over a lot.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Zalgiris offense | Bayern Munich defense | Bayern Munich offense | Zalgiris defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 54.0% (13th) | 60.4% (20th) | 56.1% (7th) | 51.7% (4th) |
| turnovers | 18.7% (17th) | 15.7% (16th) | 19.4% (19th) | 15.7% (17th) |
| offensive rebounds | 36.1% (2nd) | 33.5% (14th) | 32.1% (14th) | 26.7% (1st) |
| free throws | 33.0% (3rd) | 27.9% (7th) | 31.5% (7th) | 25.7% (3rd) |
4. Shots and zones
Zalgiris take 11% of their shots top-of-the-key threes (league 9%) at 42% (league 35%), and Bayern Munich allow 39% there. That is Zalgiris's biggest edge.
Bayern Munich take 11% of their shots from mid-range (league 11%) at 45% (league 42%), and Zalgiris allow 41% there. That is Bayern Munich's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Zalgiris | 19% · 71% | 33% · 43% | 10% · 29% | 5% · 56% | 22% · 36% | 11% · 42% |
| Defense Bayern Munich | 20% · 85% | 27% · 46% | 10% · 51% | 9% · 42% | 24% · 39% | 10% · 39% |
| Offense Bayern Munich | 18% · 78% | 32% · 51% | 11% · 45% | 7% · 37% | 23% · 38% | 9% · 29% |
| Defense Zalgiris | 20% · 76% | 28% · 44% | 14% · 41% | 4% · 44% | 26% · 31% | 9% · 29% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Zalgiris: 5% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Bayern Munich: 6% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Zalgiris · Shot chart Bayern Munich
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Zalgiris
Best lineups
- Jonas Valanciunas, Arnas Butkevicius, Azuolas Tubelis, Keenan Evans, Carsen Edwards: +32.8 net in 34 possessions
- Jonas Valanciunas, Arnas Butkevicius, Azuolas Tubelis, Carsen Edwards, Saben Lee: +3.7 net in 54 possessions
On/Off
- Keenan Evans: the team is +23.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Marius Grigonis: the team is +17.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Marek Blazevic: the team is 43.8 better with him off the court
Zalgiris: +28.8 net in 38 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 57-46 in points.
Bayern Munich
Best lineups
- Vladimir Lucic, Johannes Thiemann, Andreas Obst, Rokas Jokubaitis, Austin Wiley: -17.7 net in 40 possessions
On/Off
- Tobias Jensen: the team is +45.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Justinian Jessup: the team is +25.8 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Miles Norris: the team is 25.5 better with him off the court
Bayern Munich: -17.5 net in 46 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 46-54 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Zalgiris
- Jonas Valanciunas Centers: 12.5 pts, 9.5 reb, 1.9 ast, 21.2 PIR
- Azuolas Tubelis Forwards: 11.9 pts, 5.9 reb, 1.6 ast, 16.1 PIR
- Carsen Edwards Guards: 15.2 pts, 1.2 reb, 2.5 ast, 11.3 PIR
- Sterling Brown Guards: 10.1 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.1 ast, 10.5 PIR
Bayern Munich
- Johannes Thiemann Centers: 8.9 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.8 ast, 11.7 PIR
- Austin Wiley Centers: 7.9 pts, 6.4 reb, 0.7 ast, 10.5 PIR
- Vladimir Lucic Forwards: 6.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 1.5 ast, 9.9 PIR
- Duane Washington Guards: 15.0 pts, 1.1 reb, 2.8 ast, 9.9 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Zalgiris produce | Bayern Munich allow | Bayern Munich produce | Zalgiris allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 39.1 | 48.3 | 34.5 | 37.4 |
| Forwards | 33.3 | 33.4 | 27.6 | 32.5 |
| Centers | 22.7 | 26.8 | 27.5 | 14.2 |
The most open matchup: Zalgiris's guards (39.1 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 48.3 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Zalgiris
- Nigel Williams-Goss: Injured: Hamstring, out since Round 6
- Maodo Lo: Has missed his team's last 3 games
Bayern Munich
- Tobias Jensen: Has missed his team's last 2 games
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Zalgiris 3, Bayern Munich 3.
- 2026-03-24: Zalgiris – Bayern Munich 78-71
- 2025-10-10: Bayern Munich – Zalgiris 70-98
- 2025-01-30: Zalgiris – Bayern Munich 82-97
- 2024-11-07: Bayern Munich – Zalgiris 77-74
- 2024-03-15: Bayern Munich – Zalgiris 64-58
- 2023-11-17: Zalgiris – Bayern Munich 74-73
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Zalgiris 80% – Bayern Munich 20%, a score of about 92-81. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.