EuroLeague · Round 11 · Thursday 12 November at 22:00
Real Madrid vs Crvena Zvezda: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 11)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Real Madrid | Crvena Zvezda | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 8th · 6-4 | 2nd · 7-3 |
| Home / away | 3-1 / 3-3 | 4-2 / 3-1 |
| Form (5) | WWWWL | WLWWW |
| Points for / against | 97.8 / 90.7 | 83.2 / 75.0 |
| Net rating | +9.0 (3rd) | +11.0 (2nd) |
| Rest days | 8 | 6 |
Real Madrid: W vs ASVEL 111-92 · W @ Maccabi Tel Aviv 113-99 · W @ Baskonia 104-86 · W vs Fenerbahce 95-76 · L vs Panathinaikos 112-115
Crvena Zvezda: W vs Paris Basketball 90-81 · L @ Partizan 82-85 · W vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 100-78 · W vs Bayern Munich 103-73 · W @ Olympiacos 62-57
Our model gives Real Madrid 63%, with a projected score of 92-89, about 181 total points and a pace of 75.0 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Real Madrid on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 10th, while Crvena Zvezda's offense is 15th. Real Madrid can shut this down.
- Real Madrid on defense, offensive rebounds: they rank 4th, while Crvena Zvezda's offense is 9th. Real Madrid can shut this down.
- Pace: Real Madrid play faster (77.6 possessions) than Crvena Zvezda (73.5). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 75.0.
- Absences: Mikael Jantunen (Real Madrid), Facundo Campazzo (Real Madrid), Theo Maledon (Real Madrid).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Real Madrid | Crvena Zvezda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 124.5 (1st) | 111.8 (15th) | 115.0 |
| Defensive rating | 115.5 (10th) | 100.8 (1st) | 115.0 |
| Pace (possessions) | 77.6 (1st) | 73.5 (16th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 57.8% (2nd) | 52.3% (15th) | 54.4% |
| TS% | 62.4% (1st) | 55.8% (16th) | 58.3% |
| 3PA rate | 44.8% | 42.4% | – |
| Assist rate | 61.0% (12th) | 69.6% (3rd) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 15.4% (4th) | 17.1% (9th) | 17.0% |
| OREB% | 33.5% (11th) | 33.8% (9th) | 32.9% |
| DREB% | 68.8% (4th) | 65.9% (15th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 31.9% (6th) | 27.5% (17th) | 30.0% |
| Opponent eFG% | 54.3% (10th) | 46.4% (1st) | 54.5% |
| Opponent TOV% | 16.7% (13th) | 18.5% (5th) | 17.0% |
| Opponent FTr | 32.9% (17th) | 29.5% (9th) | 30.0% |
Real Madrid: Strengths: efficient shooting and protects the ball.
Crvena Zvezda: Strengths: holds opponents to poor shooting and forces turnovers. Weaknesses: rarely gets to the line.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Real Madrid offense | Crvena Zvezda defense | Crvena Zvezda offense | Real Madrid defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 57.8% (2nd) | 46.4% (1st) | 52.3% (15th) | 54.3% (10th) |
| turnovers | 15.4% (4th) | 18.5% (5th) | 17.1% (9th) | 16.7% (13th) |
| offensive rebounds | 33.5% (11th) | 34.1% (15th) | 33.8% (9th) | 31.3% (4th) |
| free throws | 31.9% (6th) | 29.5% (9th) | 27.5% (17th) | 32.9% (17th) |
4. Shots and zones
Real Madrid take 14% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 89% (league 79%), and Crvena Zvezda allow 72% there. That is Real Madrid's biggest edge.
Crvena Zvezda take 11% of their shots from mid-range (league 11%) at 49% (league 41%), and Real Madrid allow 46% there. That is Crvena Zvezda's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Real Madrid | 14% · 89% | 34% · 50% | 7% · 27% | 4% · 35% | 33% · 39% | 8% · 45% |
| Defense Crvena Zvezda | 15% · 72% | 34% · 44% | 9% · 33% | 5% · 31% | 26% · 28% | 11% · 28% |
| Offense Crvena Zvezda | 16% · 70% | 30% · 45% | 11% · 49% | 8% · 35% | 24% · 32% | 11% · 41% |
| Defense Real Madrid | 12% · 90% | 34% · 46% | 14% · 46% | 2% · 63% | 27% · 34% | 11% · 36% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 41% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Real Madrid: 4% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Crvena Zvezda: 8% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Shot chart Real Madrid · Shot chart Crvena Zvezda
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Real Madrid
Best lineups
- Alberto Abalde, Gabriele Procida, Andres Feliz, Chuma Okeke, Damian Jones: -7.2 net in 14 possessions
- Alberto Abalde, Walter Tavares, Andres Feliz, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Chuma Okeke: +15.7 net in 13 possessions
On/Off
- Theo Maledon (out): the team is +24.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Chuma Okeke: the team is +23.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot: the team is 20.4 better with him off the court
Real Madrid: -71.3 net in 24 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 20-37 in points.
Crvena Zvezda
Best lineups
- Chris Jones, Tyson Carter, Chima Moneke, Jordan Nwora, Christian Koloko: +45.0 net in 51 possessions
On/Off
- Christian Koloko: the team is +25.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Chima Moneke: the team is +20.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Johnathan Motley: the team is 33.0 better with him off the court
Crvena Zvezda: +27.3 net in 51 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 63-49 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Real Madrid
- Walter Tavares Centers: 10.5 pts, 7.3 reb, 0.1 ast, 16.0 PIR
- Andres Feliz Guards: 13.6 pts, 3.0 reb, 3.8 ast, 14.4 PIR
- Chuma Okeke Centers: 6.9 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.3 ast, 9.2 PIR
- Alberto Abalde Forwards: 7.9 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.8 ast, 8.3 PIR
Crvena Zvezda
- Jordan Nwora Forwards: 15.0 pts, 5.5 reb, 1.3 ast, 15.1 PIR
- Chris Jones Guards: 8.9 pts, 2.4 reb, 5.6 ast, 13.4 PIR
- Chima Moneke Forwards: 10.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.5 ast, 13.1 PIR
- Semi Ojeleye Forwards: 8.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.3 ast, 10.2 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Real Madrid produce | Crvena Zvezda allow | Crvena Zvezda produce | Real Madrid allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 14.4 | 25.6 | 36.6 | 35.7 |
| Forwards | 22.6 | 31.0 | 46.5 | 29.6 |
| Centers | 31.8 | 16.6 | 2.4 | 18.7 |
The most open matchup: Crvena Zvezda's forwards (46.5 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 29.6 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Real Madrid
- Mikael Jantunen: Injured: Complete plantar fascia tear in the left foot, out 2-3 months · Expected back: January 2027
- Facundo Campazzo: Injured: Muscle injury, awaiting tests on its severity
- Theo Maledon: Injured: Right knee sprain, no timetable for his return
Crvena Zvezda
- No known absences
Real Madrid will be without players who took 18% of their recent minutes.
According to the model, each absence shifts the expected margin by: Theo Maledon 0.3 points.
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Real Madrid 5, Crvena Zvezda 1.
- 2026-04-16: Real Madrid – Crvena Zvezda 103-82
- 2025-10-17: Crvena Zvezda – Real Madrid 90-75
- 2025-03-28: Crvena Zvezda – Real Madrid 72-78
- 2024-10-24: Real Madrid – Crvena Zvezda 95-72
- 2024-03-29: Real Madrid – Crvena Zvezda 101-94
- 2023-12-19: Crvena Zvezda – Real Madrid 58-72
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Real Madrid 63% – Crvena Zvezda 37%, a score of about 92-89. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.