EuroLeague · Round 12 · Tuesday 17 November at 21:45
Partizan vs Valencia Basket: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 12)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Partizan | Valencia Basket | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 11th · 6-5 | 1st · 8-3 |
| Home / away | 4-1 / 2-4 | 4-2 / 4-1 |
| Form (5) | WLLWW | WWLWW |
| Points for / against | 79.5 / 77.7 | 96.4 / 88.9 |
| Net rating | +2.4 (10th) | +9.6 (4th) |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
Partizan: W vs Crvena Zvezda 85-82 · L @ ASVEL 75-82 · L @ Zalgiris 80-87 · W vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 88-67 · W vs Baskonia 80-66
Valencia Basket: W @ Paris Basketball 104-93 · W vs Fenerbahce 86-78 · L @ Barcelona 94-98 · W @ Olimpia Milano 84-73 · W vs Bayern Munich 102-87
Our model gives Valencia Basket 61%, with a projected score of 83-86, about 169 total points and a pace of 73.9 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Valencia Basket on defense, offensive rebounds: they rank 2nd, while Partizan's offense is 19th. Valencia Basket can shut this down.
- Partizan on offense, turnovers: they rank 3rd in the league while Valencia Basket's defense ranks only 14th. A clear edge for Partizan.
- Valencia Basket on defense, free throws: they rank 4th, while Partizan's offense is 12th. Valencia Basket can shut this down.
- Pace: Valencia Basket play faster (77.0 possessions) than Partizan (72.0). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 73.9.
- Absences: Derek Willis (Partizan), Kevarrius Hayes (Partizan), Nathan Reuvers (Valencia Basket).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Partizan | Valencia Basket | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 109.1 (19th) | 123.8 (2nd) | 115.1 |
| Defensive rating | 106.7 (4th) | 114.2 (7th) | 115.1 |
| Pace (possessions) | 72.0 (20th) | 77.0 (3rd) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 51.4% (18th) | 56.2% (6th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 54.5% (19th) | 59.3% (9th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 36.9% | 40.6% | – |
| Assist rate | 68.8% (3rd) | 57.8% (18th) | 62.0% |
| Turnover % | 14.1% (3rd) | 13.4% (1st) | 17.1% |
| OREB% | 28.7% (19th) | 35.4% (5th) | 33.0% |
| DREB% | 69.6% (3rd) | 70.6% (2nd) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 29.6% (12th) | 27.9% (15th) | 29.9% |
| Opponent eFG% | 52.0% (5th) | 55.8% (13th) | 54.6% |
| Opponent TOV% | 19.8% (1st) | 16.5% (14th) | 17.1% |
| Opponent FTr | 31.9% (16th) | 26.0% (4th) | 29.9% |
Partizan: Strengths: forces turnovers and protects the ball. Weaknesses: few offensive rebounds and poor shooting.
Valencia Basket: Strengths: protects the ball and boxes out well.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Partizan offense | Valencia Basket defense | Valencia Basket offense | Partizan defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 51.4% (18th) | 55.8% (13th) | 56.2% (6th) | 52.0% (5th) |
| turnovers | 14.1% (3rd) | 16.5% (14th) | 13.4% (1st) | 19.8% (1st) |
| offensive rebounds | 28.7% (19th) | 29.4% (2nd) | 35.4% (5th) | 30.4% (3rd) |
| free throws | 29.6% (12th) | 26.0% (4th) | 27.9% (15th) | 31.9% (16th) |
4. Shots and zones
Partizan take 29% of their shots in the paint (league 31%) at 49% (league 47%), and Valencia Basket allow 50% there. That is Partizan's biggest edge.
Valencia Basket take 10% of their shots top-of-the-key threes (league 9%) at 42% (league 35%), and Partizan allow 33% there. That is Valencia Basket's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Partizan | 20% · 74% | 29% · 49% | 14% · 37% | 5% · 31% | 27% · 30% | 5% · 37% |
| Defense Valencia Basket | 23% · 74% | 27% · 50% | 9% · 40% | 8% · 50% | 26% · 32% | 8% · 33% |
| Offense Valencia Basket | 22% · 72% | 28% · 44% | 9% · 45% | 6% · 45% | 25% · 37% | 10% · 42% |
| Defense Partizan | 17% · 77% | 32% · 45% | 11% · 41% | 5% · 30% | 28% · 34% | 7% · 33% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Partizan: 5% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Valencia Basket: 8% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Partizan · Shot chart Valencia Basket
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Partizan
Best lineups
- Mario Nakic, Arijan Lakic, Luca Vildoza, Tonye Jekiri, Kyle Allman: -42.1 net in 24 possessions
- Nikola Tanaskovic, Tonye Jekiri, Carlik Jones, Lamar Stevens, Ethan Thompson: +45.0 net in 20 possessions
On/Off
- Robert Franks: the team is +38.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Tonye Jekiri: the team is +14.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Joffrey Lauvergne: the team is 33.2 better with him off the court
Partizan: -34.1 net in 32 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 24-35 in points.
Valencia Basket
Best lineups
- Neal Sako, Dylan Osetkowski, Kameron Taylor, Tj Shorts, Armoni Brooks: +49.5 net in 40 possessions
- Neal Sako, Dylan Osetkowski, Kameron Taylor, Mario Saint-Supery, Tj Shorts: +27.9 net in 36 possessions
On/Off
- Armoni Brooks: the team is +31.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Tj Shorts: the team is +29.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Gonzalo Corbalan: the team is 33.8 better with him off the court
Valencia Basket: -8.9 net in 56 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 68-73 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Partizan
- Tonye Jekiri Centers: 11.1 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.3 ast, 15.3 PIR
- Carlik Jones Guards: 13.8 pts, 3.0 reb, 6.0 ast, 15.2 PIR
- Lamar Stevens Forwards: 10.8 pts, 5.0 reb, 0.8 ast, 12.1 PIR
- Nikola Tanaskovic Centers: 8.4 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.0 ast, 9.7 PIR
Valencia Basket
- Tj Shorts Guards: 16.6 pts, 1.8 reb, 6.0 ast, 20.6 PIR
- Nikola Mirotic Forwards: 13.0 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.9 ast, 15.0 PIR
- Armoni Brooks Guards: 14.8 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.3 ast, 13.4 PIR
- Kameron Taylor Forwards: 11.5 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.3 ast, 11.4 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Partizan produce | Valencia Basket allow | Valencia Basket produce | Partizan allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 34.3 | 39.3 | 47.6 | 32.5 |
| Forwards | 22.5 | 35.3 | 41.0 | 32.5 |
| Centers | 19.7 | 19.5 | 10.3 | 18.5 |
The most open matchup: Valencia Basket's guards (47.6 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 32.5 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Partizan
- Derek Willis: Injured: Ankle, out since Round 1
- Kyle Allman: Has missed his team's last 3 games
- Kevarrius Hayes: Injured: Shoulder, out against Baskonia · Expected back: 17 November
Valencia Basket
- Nathan Reuvers: Injured: Foot
- Nikola Mirotic: Has missed his team's last 3 games
8. Head-to-head
In their last 4 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Partizan 3, Valencia Basket 1.
- 2026-03-27: Partizan – Valencia Basket 110-104
- 2025-12-30: Valencia Basket – Partizan 86-73
- 2024-04-12: Partizan – Valencia Basket 79-66
- 2023-12-19: Valencia Basket – Partizan 67-72
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Partizan 39% – Valencia Basket 61%, a score of about 83-86. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.