EuroLeague · Round 12 · Tuesday 17 November at 19:00
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Olympiacos: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 12)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | Olympiacos | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 17th · 3-8 | 3rd · 8-3 |
| Home / away | 2-3 / 1-5 | 3-2 / 5-1 |
| Form (5) | LLLLW | LWWLW |
| Points for / against | 84.3 / 92.1 | 88.5 / 80.7 |
| Net rating | -10.4 (17th) | +10.3 (3rd) |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
Maccabi Tel Aviv: L vs Real Madrid 99-113 · L @ Crvena Zvezda 78-100 · L vs Paris Basketball 94-99 · L @ Partizan 67-88 · W vs Hapoel Tel Aviv 80-73
Olympiacos: L vs Fenerbahce 61-64 · W @ Besiktas 81-73 · W vs Olimpia Milano 84-78 · L vs Crvena Zvezda 57-62 · W vs Dubai Basketball 101-72
Our model gives Olympiacos 77%, with a projected score of 85-92, about 177 total points and a pace of 74.4 possessions. Confidence: high.
2. What will decide the game
- Olympiacos on defense, free throws: they rank 1st, while Maccabi Tel Aviv's offense is 16th. Olympiacos can shut this down.
- Olympiacos on defense, turnovers: they rank 2nd, while Maccabi Tel Aviv's offense is 14th. Olympiacos can shut this down.
- Olympiacos on offense, free throws: they rank 9th in the league while Maccabi Tel Aviv's defense ranks only 19th. A clear edge for Olympiacos.
- Absences: Iffe Lundberg (Maccabi Tel Aviv), Tyler Dorsey (Olympiacos), Jean Montero (Olympiacos).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | Olympiacos | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 112.2 (16th) | 118.2 (6th) | 115.1 |
| Defensive rating | 122.6 (19th) | 107.9 (5th) | 115.1 |
| Pace (possessions) | 75.1 (12th) | 73.2 (17th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 54.6% (12th) | 55.0% (11th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 58.2% (12th) | 58.9% (10th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 40.4% | 38.7% | – |
| Assist rate | 60.9% (12th) | 59.3% (15th) | 62.0% |
| Turnover % | 18.4% (14th) | 17.0% (9th) | 17.1% |
| OREB% | 31.3% (15th) | 37.3% (1st) | 33.0% |
| DREB% | 67.9% (9th) | 65.8% (15th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 27.3% (16th) | 30.8% (9th) | 29.9% |
| Opponent eFG% | 59.6% (19th) | 52.6% (7th) | 54.6% |
| Opponent TOV% | 17.1% (10th) | 19.1% (2nd) | 17.1% |
| Opponent FTr | 34.2% (19th) | 21.3% (1st) | 29.9% |
Maccabi Tel Aviv: Weaknesses: allows easy shots and rarely gets to the line.
Olympiacos: Strengths: strong on second chances and forces turnovers.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Maccabi Tel Aviv offense | Olympiacos defense | Olympiacos offense | Maccabi Tel Aviv defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 54.6% (12th) | 52.6% (7th) | 55.0% (11th) | 59.6% (19th) |
| turnovers | 18.4% (14th) | 19.1% (2nd) | 17.0% (9th) | 17.1% (10th) |
| offensive rebounds | 31.3% (15th) | 34.2% (15th) | 37.3% (1st) | 32.1% (9th) |
| free throws | 27.3% (16th) | 21.3% (1st) | 30.8% (9th) | 34.2% (19th) |
4. Shots and zones
Maccabi Tel Aviv take 16% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 83% (league 79%), and Olympiacos allow 82% there. That is Maccabi Tel Aviv's biggest edge.
Olympiacos take 7% of their shots corner threes (league 6%) at 46% (league 39%), and Maccabi Tel Aviv allow 44% there. That is Olympiacos's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Maccabi Tel Aviv | 16% · 83% | 32% · 46% | 12% · 48% | 4% · 36% | 24% · 34% | 13% · 36% |
| Defense Olympiacos | 16% · 82% | 24% · 35% | 13% · 40% | 9% · 49% | 30% · 36% | 8% · 27% |
| Offense Olympiacos | 22% · 82% | 30% · 48% | 9% · 43% | 7% · 46% | 25% · 31% | 7% · 17% |
| Defense Maccabi Tel Aviv | 16% · 78% | 24% · 46% | 8% · 49% | 9% · 44% | 29% · 42% | 13% · 37% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Maccabi Tel Aviv: 6% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Olympiacos: 6% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Maccabi Tel Aviv · Shot chart Olympiacos
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Best lineups
- Daniel Theis, Jaylen Hoard, Yam Madar, O'Shae J Brissett, Keaton Wallace: -63.4 net in 27 possessions
- Jaylen Hoard, Yam Madar, Roman Sorkin, Jimmy Clark Iii, O'Shae J Brissett: +4.4 net in 23 possessions
On/Off
- William Rayman: the team is +33.0 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- John Dibartolomeo: the team is +26.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Tj Leaf: the team is 29.7 better with him off the court
Maccabi Tel Aviv: +21.1 net in 24 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 30-25 in points.
Olympiacos
Best lineups
- Kostas Papanikolaou, Sasha Vezenkov, Codi Miller-Mcintyre, Donta Hall, Tyson Ward: +42.2 net in 36 possessions
- Sasha Vezenkov, Nikola Milutinov, Codi Miller-Mcintyre, Tyson Ward, Evan Fournier: +8.3 net in 60 possessions
On/Off
- Jean Montero (out): the team is +27.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Evan Fournier: the team is +17.8 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Codi Miller-Mcintyre: the team is 16.0 better with him off the court
Olympiacos: +12.0 net in 75 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 91-82 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Yam Madar Guards: 11.5 pts, 2.2 reb, 4.8 ast, 14.1 PIR
- Bonzie Colson Forwards: 10.7 pts, 3.3 reb, 0.5 ast, 11.7 PIR
- Daniel Theis Centers: 8.1 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.9 ast, 11.1 PIR
- O'Shae J Brissett Forwards: 8.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.0 ast, 11.1 PIR
Olympiacos
- Sasha Vezenkov Forwards: 19.2 pts, 5.8 reb, 1.0 ast, 23.2 PIR
- Mbaye Ndiaye Forwards: 8.8 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.0 ast, 10.6 PIR
- Evan Fournier Forwards: 13.5 pts, 2.1 reb, 3.0 ast, 9.3 PIR
- Nikola Milutinov Centers: 3.4 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.0 ast, 9.1 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Maccabi Tel Aviv produce | Olympiacos allow | Olympiacos produce | Maccabi Tel Aviv allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 27.1 | 33.8 | 12.5 | 43.4 |
| Forwards | 45.3 | 28.4 | 53.2 | 36.6 |
| Centers | 12.8 | 16.5 | 19.8 | 19.9 |
The most open matchup: Olympiacos's forwards (53.2 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 36.6 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Iffe Lundberg: Injured: Partial quadriceps tendon tear, out until December · Expected back: December 2026
Olympiacos
- Tyler Dorsey: Out: Club decision
- Jean Montero: Injured: Left knee meniscus surgery, out about 6 months · Expected back: May 2027
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Maccabi Tel Aviv 0, Olympiacos 6.
- 2026-01-20: Olympiacos – Maccabi Tel Aviv 100-93
- 2025-10-16: Maccabi Tel Aviv – Olympiacos 94-95
- 2025-04-10: Olympiacos – Maccabi Tel Aviv 99-93
- 2024-11-14: Maccabi Tel Aviv – Olympiacos 91-94
- 2024-01-18: Olympiacos – Maccabi Tel Aviv 89-72
- 2023-11-14: Maccabi Tel Aviv – Olympiacos 74-79
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Maccabi Tel Aviv 23% – Olympiacos 77%, a score of about 85-92. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.