EuroLeague · Round 12 · Tuesday 17 November at 18:00
Dubai Basketball vs Anadolu Efes: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 12)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Dubai Basketball | Anadolu Efes | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 9th · 7-4 | 12th · 5-6 |
| Home / away | 3-2 / 4-2 | 4-2 / 1-4 |
| Form (5) | WLWWL | WLWLW |
| Points for / against | 86.5 / 85.6 | 85.9 / 87.5 |
| Net rating | +1.3 (11th) | -2.0 (12th) |
| Rest days | 5 | 4 |
Dubai Basketball: W @ Bayern Munich 107-91 · L vs Paris Basketball 93-99 · W vs Hapoel Tel Aviv 97-83 · W @ Virtus Bologna 93-75 · L @ Olympiacos 72-101
Anadolu Efes: W vs Besiktas 89-80 · L @ Hapoel Tel Aviv 88-118 · W vs Panathinaikos 83-68 · L vs Paris Basketball 90-95 · W vs Virtus Bologna 103-91
Our model gives Dubai Basketball 69%, with a projected score of 91-85, about 177 total points and a pace of 74.4 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Anadolu Efes on offense, turnovers: they rank 10th in the league while Dubai Basketball's defense ranks only 20th. A clear edge for Anadolu Efes.
- Dubai Basketball on defense, offensive rebounds: they rank 8th, while Anadolu Efes's offense is 17th. Dubai Basketball can shut this down.
- Dubai Basketball on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 8th, while Anadolu Efes's offense is 14th. Dubai Basketball can shut this down.
- Pace: Anadolu Efes play faster (76.4 possessions) than Dubai Basketball (72.6). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 74.4.
- Absences: Thomas Walkup (Dubai Basketball), Mike James (Anadolu Efes).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Dubai Basketball | Anadolu Efes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 119.2 (4th) | 112.4 (14th) | 115.1 |
| Defensive rating | 118.0 (12th) | 114.4 (8th) | 115.1 |
| Pace (possessions) | 72.6 (19th) | 76.4 (6th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 55.3% (10th) | 53.5% (14th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 59.9% (5th) | 58.3% (11th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 36.8% | 39.6% | – |
| Assist rate | 59.3% (14th) | 67.2% (5th) | 62.0% |
| Turnover % | 16.2% (7th) | 17.2% (10th) | 17.1% |
| OREB% | 34.6% (8th) | 28.9% (17th) | 33.0% |
| DREB% | 68.0% (8th) | 69.1% (4th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 34.6% (2nd) | 31.3% (8th) | 29.9% |
| Opponent eFG% | 54.1% (8th) | 56.0% (14th) | 54.6% |
| Opponent TOV% | 12.8% (20th) | 17.8% (8th) | 17.1% |
| Opponent FTr | 24.6% (2nd) | 26.1% (5th) | 29.9% |
Dubai Basketball: Strengths: gets to the line often. Weaknesses: forces few turnovers.
Anadolu Efes: Strengths: boxes out well. Weaknesses: few offensive rebounds.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Dubai Basketball offense | Anadolu Efes defense | Anadolu Efes offense | Dubai Basketball defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 55.3% (10th) | 56.0% (14th) | 53.5% (14th) | 54.1% (8th) |
| turnovers | 16.2% (7th) | 17.8% (8th) | 17.2% (10th) | 12.8% (20th) |
| offensive rebounds | 34.6% (8th) | 30.9% (4th) | 28.9% (17th) | 32.0% (8th) |
| free throws | 34.6% (2nd) | 26.1% (5th) | 31.3% (8th) | 24.6% (2nd) |
4. Shots and zones
Dubai Basketball take 23% of their shots wing threes (league 27%) at 36% (league 35%), and Anadolu Efes allow 37% there. That is Dubai Basketball's biggest edge.
Anadolu Efes take 29% of their shots in the paint (league 31%) at 44% (league 47%), and Dubai Basketball allow 52% there. That is Anadolu Efes's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Dubai Basketball | 16% · 82% | 34% · 47% | 14% · 41% | 6% · 45% | 23% · 36% | 8% · 35% |
| Defense Anadolu Efes | 16% · 79% | 29% · 50% | 11% · 44% | 8% · 33% | 25% · 37% | 11% · 38% |
| Offense Anadolu Efes | 20% · 78% | 29% · 44% | 11% · 38% | 6% · 36% | 25% · 33% | 8% · 40% |
| Defense Dubai Basketball | 14% · 82% | 36% · 52% | 11% · 34% | 6% · 42% | 25% · 34% | 8% · 30% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Dubai Basketball: 6% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Anadolu Efes: 8% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Shot chart Dubai Basketball · Shot chart Anadolu Efes
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Dubai Basketball
Best lineups
- Filip Petrusev, Dwayne Bacon, Mckinley Wright Iv, Mfiondu Kabengele, Davion Mintz: +36.0 net in 53 possessions
- Tornike Shengelia, Dzanan Musa, Dwayne Bacon, Mckinley Wright Iv, Mfiondu Kabengele: +30.9 net in 45 possessions
On/Off
- Mckinley Wright Iv: the team is +30.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Davion Mintz: the team is +19.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Kosta Kondic: the team is 32.7 better with him off the court
Dubai Basketball: -97.3 net in 11 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 9-20 in points.
Anadolu Efes
Best lineups
- Dario Saric, Jordan Loyd, Collin Malcolm, Bruno Fernando, Cameron Payne: +13.3 net in 98 possessions
- Dario Saric, Matthew Strazel, Collin Malcolm, Bruno Fernando, Cameron Payne: +2.1 net in 47 possessions
On/Off
- Mike James (out): the team is +31.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Daron Russell: the team is +28.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Pj Dozier: the team is 12.5 better with him off the court
Anadolu Efes: -29.3 net in 38 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 37-48 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Dubai Basketball
- Dwayne Bacon Forwards: 16.6 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.9 ast, 18.5 PIR
- Mfiondu Kabengele Centers: 14.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 1.3 ast, 18.0 PIR
- Elie Okobo Guards: 11.1 pts, 1.9 reb, 4.4 ast, 12.7 PIR
- Mckinley Wright Iv Guards: 10.0 pts, 2.7 reb, 3.3 ast, 10.8 PIR
Anadolu Efes
- Dario Saric Forwards: 11.5 pts, 6.4 reb, 2.2 ast, 14.9 PIR
- Collin Malcolm Forwards: 11.4 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.8 ast, 13.8 PIR
- Cameron Payne Guards: 16.5 pts, 0.9 reb, 4.9 ast, 13.1 PIR
- Matthew Strazel Guards: 10.8 pts, 1.5 reb, 4.5 ast, 12.0 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Dubai Basketball produce | Anadolu Efes allow | Anadolu Efes produce | Dubai Basketball allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 29.2 | 48.0 | 35.6 | 36.2 |
| Forwards | 32.1 | 24.5 | 36.1 | 29.1 |
| Centers | 32.9 | 19.5 | 18.9 | 23.5 |
The most open matchup: Dubai Basketball's guards (29.2 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 48.0 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Dubai Basketball
- Thomas Walkup: Injured: Back, not travelling for the game against Olympiacos
- Davis Bertans: Has missed his team's last 2 games
Anadolu Efes
- Mike James: Injured: Achilles tendon, out 7 to 9 months · Expected back: June 2027
8. Head-to-head
In their last 2 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Dubai Basketball 1, Anadolu Efes 1.
- 2026-04-10: Dubai Basketball – Anadolu Efes 69-85
- 2025-12-19: Anadolu Efes – Dubai Basketball 76-80
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Dubai Basketball 69% – Anadolu Efes 31%, a score of about 91-85. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.