EuroLeague · Round 12 · Wednesday 18 November at 19:00
Besiktas vs Real Madrid: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 12)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Besiktas | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 13th · 5-6 | 5th · 7-4 |
| Home / away | 1-4 / 4-2 | 4-1 / 3-3 |
| Form (5) | LLWLW | WWWLW |
| Points for / against | 88.4 / 90.9 | 98.5 / 90.1 |
| Net rating | -3.3 (13th) | +10.7 (1st) |
| Rest days | 5 | 6 |
Besiktas: L @ Anadolu Efes 80-89 · L vs Olympiacos 73-81 · W @ Virtus Bologna 103-101 · L vs Zalgiris 67-83 · W @ ASVEL 95-91
Real Madrid: W @ Maccabi Tel Aviv 113-99 · W @ Baskonia 104-86 · W vs Fenerbahce 95-76 · L vs Panathinaikos 112-115 · W vs Crvena Zvezda 105-84
Our model gives Real Madrid 67%, with a projected score of 89-93, about 181 total points and a pace of 76.7 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Real Madrid on offense, free throws: they rank 4th in the league while Besiktas's defense ranks only 20th. A clear edge for Real Madrid.
- Real Madrid on defense, offensive rebounds: they rank 5th, while Besiktas's offense is 16th. Real Madrid can shut this down.
- Real Madrid on offense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 1st in the league while Besiktas's defense ranks only 12th. A clear edge for Real Madrid.
- Absences: Jaylen Nowell (Besiktas), Gabriel Deck (Real Madrid), Mikael Jantunen (Real Madrid), Facundo Campazzo (Real Madrid), Theo Maledon (Real Madrid).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Besiktas | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 115.9 (9th) | 126.1 (1st) | 115.1 |
| Defensive rating | 119.2 (13th) | 115.4 (10th) | 115.1 |
| Pace (possessions) | 76.3 (7th) | 77.2 (2nd) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 56.2% (5th) | 58.6% (1st) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 59.3% (8th) | 63.4% (1st) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 43.3% | 46.0% | – |
| Assist rate | 63.0% (9th) | 61.2% (11th) | 62.0% |
| Turnover % | 16.1% (6th) | 16.0% (4th) | 17.1% |
| OREB% | 29.3% (16th) | 34.3% (9th) | 33.0% |
| DREB% | 67.3% (11th) | 68.4% (5th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 26.3% (19th) | 32.4% (4th) | 29.9% |
| Opponent eFG% | 55.6% (12th) | 54.7% (10th) | 54.6% |
| Opponent TOV% | 17.0% (12th) | 17.0% (13th) | 17.1% |
| Opponent FTr | 43.3% (20th) | 31.8% (15th) | 29.9% |
Besiktas: Strengths: efficient shooting. Weaknesses: rarely gets to the line and few offensive rebounds.
Real Madrid: Strengths: efficient shooting and protects the ball.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Besiktas offense | Real Madrid defense | Real Madrid offense | Besiktas defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 56.2% (5th) | 54.7% (10th) | 58.6% (1st) | 55.6% (12th) |
| turnovers | 16.1% (6th) | 17.0% (13th) | 16.0% (4th) | 17.0% (12th) |
| offensive rebounds | 29.3% (16th) | 31.6% (5th) | 34.3% (9th) | 32.7% (11th) |
| free throws | 26.3% (19th) | 31.8% (15th) | 32.4% (4th) | 43.3% (20th) |
4. Shots and zones
Besiktas take 29% of their shots wing threes (league 27%) at 43% (league 35%), and Real Madrid allow 35% there. That is Besiktas's biggest edge.
Real Madrid take 13% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 90% (league 79%), and Besiktas allow 85% there. That is Real Madrid's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Besiktas | 15% · 83% | 30% · 47% | 12% · 40% | 5% · 43% | 29% · 43% | 10% · 24% |
| Defense Real Madrid | 11% · 90% | 35% · 46% | 14% · 45% | 2% · 63% | 28% · 35% | 11% · 38% |
| Offense Real Madrid | 13% · 90% | 33% · 50% | 7% · 30% | 3% · 35% | 34% · 40% | 9% · 44% |
| Defense Besiktas | 18% · 85% | 34% · 48% | 13% · 45% | 3% · 38% | 24% · 34% | 8% · 35% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Besiktas: 7% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Real Madrid: 4% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Besiktas · Shot chart Real Madrid
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Besiktas
Best lineups
- Ante Zizic, Scottie Wilbekin, Anthony Brown, Conor Morgan, Devon Dotson: +34.6 net in 26 possessions
- Scottie Wilbekin, Anthony Brown, Devon Dotson, Wenyen Gabriel, Eugene Omoruyi: +16.4 net in 18 possessions
On/Off
- Wenyen Gabriel: the team is +13.9 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Devon Dotson: the team is +13.9 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Berk Ugurlu: the team is 20.7 better with him off the court
Besiktas: +104.3 net in 17 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 37-19 in points.
Real Madrid
Best lineups
- Alberto Abalde, Gabriele Procida, Andres Feliz, Chuma Okeke, Damian Jones: -7.2 net in 14 possessions
- Alberto Abalde, Walter Tavares, Andres Feliz, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Chuma Okeke: +15.7 net in 13 possessions
On/Off
- Theo Maledon (out): the team is +24.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Alberto Abalde: the team is +21.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot: the team is 19.7 better with him off the court
Real Madrid: -71.3 net in 24 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 20-37 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Besiktas
- Lonnie Walker Iv Guards: 13.8 pts, 2.3 reb, 2.0 ast, 12.5 PIR
- Devon Dotson Guards: 9.1 pts, 2.1 reb, 3.7 ast, 12.0 PIR
- Scottie Wilbekin Guards: 13.5 pts, 1.5 reb, 2.8 ast, 11.0 PIR
- Ante Zizic Centers: 7.0 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.1 ast, 10.9 PIR
Real Madrid
- Walter Tavares Centers: 9.9 pts, 6.9 reb, 0.1 ast, 15.3 PIR
- Andres Feliz Guards: 13.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 4.1 ast, 14.8 PIR
- Chuma Okeke Centers: 7.1 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.2 ast, 9.2 PIR
- Alberto Abalde Forwards: 7.9 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.7 ast, 8.2 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Besiktas produce | Real Madrid allow | Real Madrid produce | Besiktas allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 31.4 | 39.9 | 16.0 | 42.0 |
| Forwards | 10.5 | 33.9 | 27.8 | 41.1 |
| Centers | 36.8 | 17.8 | 31.8 | 20.6 |
The most open matchup: Besiktas's guards (31.4 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 39.9 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Besiktas
- Berk Ugurlu: Has missed his team's last 2 games
- Jaylen Nowell: Injured: Nose surgery, has started rehab
Real Madrid
- Gabriel Deck: Injured: Shoulder surgery
- Mikael Jantunen: Injured: Complete plantar fascia tear in the left foot, out 2-3 months · Expected back: January 2027
- Facundo Campazzo: Injured: Muscle injury, awaiting tests on its severity
- Theo Maledon: Injured: Right knee sprain, no timetable for his return
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Besiktas 33% – Real Madrid 67%, a score of about 89-93. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.