EuroLeague · Round 12 · Tuesday 17 November at 21:30
Barcelona vs Paris Basketball: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 12)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Barcelona | Paris Basketball | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 4th · 8-3 | 14th · 5-6 |
| Home / away | 3-2 / 5-1 | 2-4 / 3-2 |
| Form (5) | WWWWW | LWWWW |
| Points for / against | 89.6 / 87.4 | 91.0 / 94.1 |
| Net rating | +3.0 (9th) | -3.9 (14th) |
| Rest days | 4 | 6 |
Barcelona: W @ Olimpia Milano 89-81 · W @ Bayern Munich 88-84 · W vs Valencia Basket 98-94 · W @ Hapoel Tel Aviv 93-90 · W @ Panathinaikos 76-74
Paris Basketball: L vs Valencia Basket 93-104 · W @ Dubai Basketball 99-93 · W @ Maccabi Tel Aviv 99-94 · W @ Anadolu Efes 95-90 · W vs Fenerbahce 111-109
Our model gives Barcelona 69%, with a projected score of 93-88, about 181 total points and a pace of 76.9 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Barcelona on offense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 3rd in the league while Paris Basketball's defense ranks only 15th. A clear edge for Barcelona.
- Barcelona on offense, offensive rebounds: they rank 10th in the league while Paris Basketball's defense ranks only 19th. A clear edge for Barcelona.
- Barcelona on defense, free throws: they rank 12th, while Paris Basketball's offense is 20th. Barcelona can shut this down.
- Pace: Paris Basketball play faster (77.5 possessions) than Barcelona (74.3). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 76.9.
- Absences: Tosan Evbuomwan (Barcelona), Kevin Punter (Barcelona).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Barcelona | Paris Basketball | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 119.2 (3rd) | 116.1 (8th) | 115.1 |
| Defensive rating | 116.2 (11th) | 120.1 (15th) | 115.1 |
| Pace (possessions) | 74.3 (13th) | 77.5 (1st) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 56.8% (3rd) | 55.6% (9th) | 54.6% |
| TS% | 59.8% (6th) | 57.9% (14th) | 58.5% |
| 3PA rate | 42.9% | 47.5% | – |
| Assist rate | 50.4% (20th) | 58.9% (16th) | 62.0% |
| Turnover % | 16.1% (5th) | 17.5% (12th) | 17.1% |
| OREB% | 34.1% (10th) | 35.3% (6th) | 33.0% |
| DREB% | 67.4% (10th) | 61.4% (19th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 26.4% (18th) | 22.8% (20th) | 29.9% |
| Opponent eFG% | 54.8% (11th) | 56.6% (15th) | 54.6% |
| Opponent TOV% | 17.0% (11th) | 18.3% (6th) | 17.1% |
| Opponent FTr | 31.0% (12th) | 32.2% (17th) | 29.9% |
Barcelona: Strengths: efficient shooting and protects the ball. Weaknesses: rarely gets to the line.
Paris Basketball: Weaknesses: rarely gets to the line and concedes second chances.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Barcelona offense | Paris Basketball defense | Paris Basketball offense | Barcelona defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 56.8% (3rd) | 56.6% (15th) | 55.6% (9th) | 54.8% (11th) |
| turnovers | 16.1% (5th) | 18.3% (6th) | 17.5% (12th) | 17.0% (11th) |
| offensive rebounds | 34.1% (10th) | 38.6% (19th) | 35.3% (6th) | 32.6% (10th) |
| free throws | 26.4% (18th) | 32.2% (17th) | 22.8% (20th) | 31.0% (12th) |
4. Shots and zones
Barcelona take 31% of their shots in the paint (league 31%) at 53% (league 47%), and Paris Basketball allow 55% there. That is Barcelona's biggest edge.
Paris Basketball take 32% of their shots in the paint (league 31%) at 52% (league 47%), and Barcelona allow 48% there. That is Paris Basketball's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Barcelona | 14% · 82% | 31% · 53% | 12% · 43% | 6% · 35% | 29% · 36% | 9% · 40% |
| Defense Paris Basketball | 13% · 76% | 35% · 55% | 12% · 43% | 5% · 29% | 28% · 38% | 6% · 36% |
| Offense Paris Basketball | 12% · 84% | 32% · 52% | 8% · 48% | 6% · 35% | 34% · 34% | 7% · 36% |
| Defense Barcelona | 14% · 76% | 34% · 48% | 9% · 45% | 7% · 42% | 25% · 36% | 11% · 36% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 42% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Barcelona: 5% of shots in transition and 8% on second chances. Paris Basketball: 9% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Barcelona · Shot chart Paris Basketball
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Barcelona
Best lineups
- Joel Parra, Josh Nebo, Justin Robinson, Tyrese Martin, Stanley Umude: -17.5 net in 23 possessions
- Josh Nebo, Justin Robinson, Tyrese Martin, Stanley Umude, Olivier Nkamhoua: -13.8 net in 22 possessions
On/Off
- Josh Nebo: the team is +13.0 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Kevin Punter (out): the team is +10.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Olek Balcerowski: the team is 14.1 better with him off the court
Barcelona: +3.2 net in 63 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 88-86 in points.
Paris Basketball
Best lineups
- Daulton Hommes, Mouhamed Faye, Terry Tarpey, Sebastian Herrera, Tyson Etienne: -9.3 net in 32 possessions
On/Off
- Terry Tarpey: the team is +47.4 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Nadir Hifi: the team is +34.4 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Joel Ayayi: the team is 53.6 better with him off the court
Paris Basketball: +22.1 net in 63 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 86-72 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Barcelona
- Justin Robinson Guards: 14.6 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.8 ast, 14.3 PIR
- Josh Nebo Centers: 7.9 pts, 7.4 reb, 0.9 ast, 13.0 PIR
- Umoja Gibson Guards: 9.3 pts, 2.2 reb, 2.8 ast, 11.1 PIR
- Tyrese Martin Forwards: 9.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.5 ast, 8.5 PIR
Paris Basketball
- Nadir Hifi Guards: 20.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 3.6 ast, 18.5 PIR
- Tj Warren Forwards: 13.9 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.0 ast, 11.9 PIR
- Jared Rhoden Guards: 13.2 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.1 ast, 11.4 PIR
- Allan Dokossi Centers: 5.9 pts, 5.7 reb, 2.0 ast, 10.7 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Barcelona produce | Paris Basketball allow | Paris Basketball produce | Barcelona allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 32.6 | 48.1 | 47.7 | 41.2 |
| Forwards | 25.5 | 38.1 | 22.8 | 31.5 |
| Centers | 16.4 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.7 |
The most open matchup: Paris Basketball's guards (47.7 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 41.2 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Barcelona
- Tosan Evbuomwan: Injured: Oblique muscle tear, out about 3 weeks · Expected back: 30 November
- Kevin Punter: Injured: Left ankle sprain, out 3 to 6 weeks · Expected back: December 2026
Paris Basketball
- Daulton Hommes: Has missed his team's last 3 games
Barcelona will be without players who took 14% of their recent minutes.
According to the model, each absence shifts the expected margin by: Kevin Punter 0.3 points.
8. Head-to-head
In their last 4 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Barcelona 2, Paris Basketball 2.
- 2026-02-12: Barcelona – Paris Basketball 74-85
- 2025-12-16: Paris Basketball – Barcelona 69-85
- 2025-01-03: Paris Basketball – Barcelona 79-90
- 2024-11-15: Barcelona – Paris Basketball 87-103
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Barcelona 69% – Paris Basketball 31%, a score of about 93-88. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.