EuroLeague · Round 11 · Friday 13 November at 19:30
Anadolu Efes vs Virtus Bologna: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 11)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Anadolu Efes | Virtus Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 12th · 4-6 | 15th · 4-6 |
| Home / away | 3-2 / 1-4 | 2-3 / 2-3 |
| Form (5) | WWLWL | WLLLL |
| Points for / against | 84.2 / 87.1 | 85.6 / 89.5 |
| Net rating | -3.8 (12th) | -5.1 (15th) |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
Anadolu Efes: W @ Zalgiris 85-70 · W vs Besiktas 89-80 · L @ Hapoel Tel Aviv 88-118 · W vs Panathinaikos 83-68 · L vs Paris Basketball 90-95
Virtus Bologna: W vs Baskonia 86-78 · L @ Hapoel Tel Aviv 81-90 · L vs Zalgiris 74-91 · L vs Besiktas 101-103 · L vs Dubai Basketball 75-93
Our model gives Anadolu Efes 70%, with a projected score of 89-85, about 174 total points and a pace of 76.5 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Anadolu Efes on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 11th, while Virtus Bologna's offense is 19th. Anadolu Efes can shut this down.
- Virtus Bologna on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 9th, while Anadolu Efes's offense is 14th. Virtus Bologna can shut this down.
- Absences: Pj Dozier (Anadolu Efes).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Anadolu Efes | Virtus Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 109.6 (18th) | 112.1 (14th) | 115.0 |
| Defensive rating | 113.4 (7th) | 117.2 (12th) | 115.0 |
| Pace (possessions) | 76.8 (5th) | 76.4 (7th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 52.6% (14th) | 50.4% (19th) | 54.4% |
| TS% | 57.6% (13th) | 55.1% (18th) | 58.3% |
| 3PA rate | 39.4% | 40.9% | – |
| Assist rate | 66.8% (5th) | 56.1% (18th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 18.4% (16th) | 16.8% (8th) | 17.0% |
| OREB% | 28.6% (18th) | 36.2% (3rd) | 32.9% |
| DREB% | 68.7% (5th) | 64.1% (18th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 32.6% (4th) | 31.7% (7th) | 30.0% |
| Opponent eFG% | 55.5% (11th) | 53.8% (9th) | 54.5% |
| Opponent TOV% | 18.1% (6th) | 16.1% (16th) | 17.0% |
| Opponent FTr | 25.5% (4th) | 26.8% (6th) | 30.0% |
Anadolu Efes: Strengths: gets to the line often and boxes out well. Weaknesses: few offensive rebounds and turns the ball over a lot.
Virtus Bologna: Strengths: strong on second chances. Weaknesses: poor shooting and concedes second chances.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Anadolu Efes offense | Virtus Bologna defense | Virtus Bologna offense | Anadolu Efes defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 52.6% (14th) | 53.8% (9th) | 50.4% (19th) | 55.5% (11th) |
| turnovers | 18.4% (16th) | 16.1% (16th) | 16.8% (8th) | 18.1% (6th) |
| offensive rebounds | 28.6% (18th) | 35.9% (18th) | 36.2% (3rd) | 31.3% (5th) |
| free throws | 32.6% (4th) | 26.8% (6th) | 31.7% (7th) | 25.5% (4th) |
4. Shots and zones
Anadolu Efes take 8% of their shots top-of-the-key threes (league 9%) at 38% (league 35%), and Virtus Bologna allow 41% there. That is Anadolu Efes's biggest edge.
Virtus Bologna take 6% of their shots top-of-the-key threes (league 9%) at 41% (league 35%), and Anadolu Efes allow 36% there. That is Virtus Bologna's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Anadolu Efes | 20% · 80% | 29% · 45% | 11% · 37% | 6% · 32% | 25% · 31% | 8% · 38% |
| Defense Virtus Bologna | 14% · 74% | 37% · 45% | 9% · 39% | 3% · 19% | 28% · 39% | 8% · 41% |
| Offense Virtus Bologna | 14% · 83% | 34% · 43% | 12% · 42% | 3% · 24% | 30% · 30% | 6% · 41% |
| Defense Anadolu Efes | 15% · 77% | 31% · 51% | 11% · 43% | 7% · 35% | 24% · 37% | 11% · 36% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 41% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Anadolu Efes: 8% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Virtus Bologna: 6% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Shot chart Anadolu Efes · Shot chart Virtus Bologna
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Anadolu Efes
Best lineups
- Dario Saric, Mike James, Matthew Strazel, Collin Malcolm, Bruno Fernando: +28.0 net in 46 possessions
- Dario Saric, Jordan Loyd, Collin Malcolm, Bruno Fernando, Cameron Payne: +13.3 net in 98 possessions
On/Off
- Mike James: the team is +31.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Daron Russell: the team is +28.5 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Matthew Strazel: the team is 14.6 better with him off the court
Anadolu Efes: -29.3 net in 38 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 37-48 in points.
Virtus Bologna
Best lineups
- Marcus Carr, Aliou Diarra, Kessler Edwards, Wendell Moore, Trent Frazier: +24.9 net in 32 possessions
- Marcus Carr, Derrick Alston Jr., Aliou Diarra, Kessler Edwards, Wendell Moore: +4.3 net in 70 possessions
On/Off
- Aliou Diarra: the team is +17.9 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Wendell Moore: the team is +11.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Daniel Hackett: the team is 25.8 better with him off the court
Virtus Bologna: -11.9 net in 42 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 54-59 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Anadolu Efes
- Dario Saric Forwards: 11.4 pts, 6.6 reb, 2.1 ast, 14.9 PIR
- Cameron Payne Guards: 17.6 pts, 1.0 reb, 4.4 ast, 13.7 PIR
- Collin Malcolm Forwards: 10.5 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.9 ast, 13.0 PIR
- Matthew Strazel Guards: 10.8 pts, 1.4 reb, 4.1 ast, 11.0 PIR
Virtus Bologna
- Aliou Diarra Centers: 12.3 pts, 7.0 reb, 0.6 ast, 19.2 PIR
- Wendell Moore Guards: 12.0 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.1 ast, 11.8 PIR
- Marcus Carr Guards: 12.2 pts, 2.0 reb, 4.9 ast, 10.5 PIR
- Derrick Alston Jr. Forwards: 12.8 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.2 ast, 9.0 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Anadolu Efes produce | Virtus Bologna allow | Virtus Bologna produce | Anadolu Efes allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 30.6 | 32.1 | 36.6 | 46.2 |
| Forwards | 34.2 | 35.0 | 22.5 | 23.0 |
| Centers | 17.9 | 19.7 | 27.4 | 17.3 |
The most open matchup: Virtus Bologna's guards (36.6 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 46.2 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Anadolu Efes
- Pj Dozier: Injured: Back, out 1-2 weeks · Expected back: 13 November
Virtus Bologna
- No known absences
8. Head-to-head
In their last 7 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Anadolu Efes 4, Virtus Bologna 3.
- 2026-02-12: Anadolu Efes – Virtus Bologna 91-60
- 2025-11-11: Virtus Bologna – Anadolu Efes 99-89
- 2025-03-07: Anadolu Efes – Virtus Bologna 89-68
- 2024-10-04: Virtus Bologna – Anadolu Efes 67-76
- 2024-04-16: Anadolu Efes – Virtus Bologna 64-67
- 2024-01-12: Anadolu Efes – Virtus Bologna 99-75
- 2023-11-03: Virtus Bologna – Anadolu Efes 93-81
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Anadolu Efes 70% – Virtus Bologna 30%, a score of about 89-85. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.