Real Madrid – Crvena Zvezda

Crvena Zvezda play the tightest basketball in the EuroLeague: they allow 75.0 points per game, the best defense in the league, and score 83.2. In 8 of their 10 games the total stayed under 175.5, and on the road it has been under every time (135, 166, 167, 119).

Real Madrid are the opposite: 97.8 points scored and 90.7 allowed, with their games going over 175.5 in 7 of 10. The question is who sets the pace. Zvezda have done it in most of their games, even against strong offenses, and the league average total (173.7) is already below the line.

The risk: in Madrid, Real have gone past 200 total points against ASVEL (203) and Panathinaikos (227).