Round 11 · Parlay
EuroLeague Round 11 parlay
Our model's 3 most confident calls for Round 11 of the EuroLeague 2026-27. Chance that all of them land: 41% (fair combined odds 2.45).
Wed 11/11, 21:45
Partizan – Baskonia
Pick: win Partizan · probability 69% · fair odds 1.45
- Partizan 5-5 (form LWLLW), Baskonia 1-9 (form LLLLL) before the round.
- Projected score 82-77, with home court for the favourite.
- Injured: Partizan: Tonye Jekiri.
Thu 12/11, 21:30
Valencia Basket – Bayern Munich
Pick: win Valencia Basket · probability 84% · fair odds 1.19
- Valencia Basket 7-3 (form LWWLW), Bayern Munich 3-7 (form LLLLW) before the round.
- Projected score 93-82, with home court for the favourite.
- Injured: Valencia Basket: Nathan Reuvers.
Thu 12/11, 22:00
Real Madrid – Crvena Zvezda
Pick: win Real Madrid · probability 70% · fair odds 1.42
- Real Madrid 6-4 (form WWWWL), Crvena Zvezda 7-3 (form WLWWW) before the round.
- Projected score 84-78, with home court for the favourite.
- Injured: Real Madrid: Mikael Jantunen, Facundo Campazzo, Theo Maledon.
Is there value?
Fair odds 2.45. For value you need odds of at least 2.57: above fair plus a 5% margin, because the model makes mistakes too.
Enter the odds you found (per game or total) to see if there is value.
Licensed bookmakers’ odds
| Bookmaker | Parlay odds | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScoreBet | 2.24 | −8.2% | No value |
| Virginbet | 2.24 | −8.2% | No value |
| LeoVegas | 2.19 | −10.3% | No value |
| Betway | 2.19 | −10.4% | No value |
| Grosvenor | 2.18 | −11.0% | No value |
| 888Sport | 2.09 | −14.4% | No value |
| Coral | 2.03 | −17.0% | No value |
| Ladbrokes | 2.03 | −17.0% | No value |
| BetFair Exchange | 1.18 | −51.9% | No value |
Odds updated: 09/11, 21:06 · Odds change: always check the current price.
How it is calculated
Expected value (EV) = probability × odds − 1. Example: 41% probability at odds 2.57 gives EV +5.0%, i.e. +5 cents per 1€ in the long run, if the model’s probability is right. Parlay odds are the product of the games’ odds. Value does not mean the parlay will win: it means the price is better than the model thinks it is worth.
So far: 3 of 8 parlays won and 17 of 24 picks (the model expected 18.4). Full record →
“Fair odds” are 1 divided by the model’s probability: if you find higher odds (with a safety margin), the pick has value according to the model.
These are statistical estimates, not betting advice. Betting is for adults only (21+ in Greece, 18+ in most countries). Please gamble responsibly.