EuroLeague · Round 11 · Thursday 12 November at 21:30
Valencia Basket vs Bayern Munich: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 11)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Valencia Basket | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 3rd · 7-3 | 17th · 3-7 |
| Home / away | 3-2 / 4-1 | 0-4 / 3-3 |
| Form (5) | LWWLW | LLLLW |
| Points for / against | 95.8 / 89.1 | 86.8 / 94.5 |
| Net rating | +8.6 (4th) | -10.2 (17th) |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
Valencia Basket: L vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 88-91 · W @ Paris Basketball 104-93 · W vs Fenerbahce 86-78 · L @ Barcelona 94-98 · W @ Olimpia Milano 84-73
Bayern Munich: L @ Besiktas 87-95 · L vs Dubai Basketball 91-107 · L vs Barcelona 84-88 · L @ Crvena Zvezda 73-103 · W @ ASVEL 99-95
Our model gives Valencia Basket 82%, with a projected score of 96-84, about 180 total points and a pace of 76.3 possessions. Confidence: high.
2. What will decide the game
- Valencia Basket on offense, turnovers: they rank 2nd in the league while Bayern Munich's defense ranks only 14th. A clear edge for Valencia Basket.
- Valencia Basket on defense, offensive rebounds: they rank 2nd, while Bayern Munich's offense is 14th. Valencia Basket can shut this down.
- Valencia Basket on offense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 9th in the league while Bayern Munich's defense ranks only 19th. A clear edge for Valencia Basket.
- Absences: Nathan Reuvers (Valencia Basket).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Valencia Basket | Bayern Munich | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 123.1 (2nd) | 115.0 (10th) | 115.0 |
| Defensive rating | 114.5 (8th) | 125.2 (19th) | 115.0 |
| Pace (possessions) | 76.8 (4th) | 75.5 (10th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 55.7% (9th) | 56.0% (8th) | 54.4% |
| TS% | 59.2% (9th) | 60.5% (5th) | 58.3% |
| 3PA rate | 40.4% | 39.8% | – |
| Assist rate | 57.0% (17th) | 65.3% (6th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 14.0% (2nd) | 19.1% (18th) | 17.0% |
| OREB% | 35.7% (4th) | 32.1% (14th) | 32.9% |
| DREB% | 70.9% (2nd) | 66.3% (14th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 28.7% (13th) | 31.4% (9th) | 30.0% |
| Opponent eFG% | 55.7% (14th) | 60.4% (19th) | 54.5% |
| Opponent TOV% | 15.8% (17th) | 16.6% (14th) | 17.0% |
| Opponent FTr | 25.5% (3rd) | 28.8% (8th) | 30.0% |
Valencia Basket: Strengths: protects the ball and boxes out well. Weaknesses: forces few turnovers.
Bayern Munich: Weaknesses: allows easy shots and turns the ball over a lot.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Valencia Basket offense | Bayern Munich defense | Bayern Munich offense | Valencia Basket defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 55.7% (9th) | 60.4% (19th) | 56.0% (8th) | 55.7% (14th) |
| turnovers | 14.0% (2nd) | 16.6% (14th) | 19.1% (18th) | 15.8% (17th) |
| offensive rebounds | 35.7% (4th) | 33.7% (14th) | 32.1% (14th) | 29.1% (2nd) |
| free throws | 28.7% (13th) | 28.8% (8th) | 31.4% (9th) | 25.5% (3rd) |
4. Shots and zones
Valencia Basket take 26% of their shots wing threes (league 27%) at 36% (league 35%), and Bayern Munich allow 38% there. That is Valencia Basket's biggest edge.
Bayern Munich take 31% of their shots in the paint (league 31%) at 50% (league 47%), and Valencia Basket allow 48% there. That is Bayern Munich's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Valencia Basket | 22% · 71% | 28% · 45% | 10% · 43% | 5% · 47% | 26% · 36% | 9% · 42% |
| Defense Bayern Munich | 20% · 85% | 26% · 48% | 10% · 50% | 9% · 44% | 25% · 38% | 10% · 38% |
| Offense Bayern Munich | 18% · 78% | 31% · 50% | 11% · 45% | 7% · 36% | 23% · 39% | 9% · 29% |
| Defense Valencia Basket | 24% · 74% | 25% · 48% | 9% · 40% | 8% · 50% | 27% · 32% | 7% · 33% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 41% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Valencia Basket: 7% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Bayern Munich: 7% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Valencia Basket · Shot chart Bayern Munich
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Valencia Basket
Best lineups
- Neal Sako, Dylan Osetkowski, Kameron Taylor, Tj Shorts, Armoni Brooks: +49.5 net in 40 possessions
On/Off
- Armoni Brooks: the team is +33.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Tj Shorts: the team is +26.8 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Gonzalo Corbalan: the team is 39.2 better with him off the court
Valencia Basket: -8.9 net in 56 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 68-73 in points.
Bayern Munich
Best lineups
- Vladimir Lucic, Johannes Thiemann, Andreas Obst, Rokas Jokubaitis, Austin Wiley: -10.9 net in 37 possessions
On/Off
- Tobias Jensen: the team is +45.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Justinian Jessup: the team is +31.0 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Andreas Obst: the team is 24.2 better with him off the court
Bayern Munich: -17.5 net in 46 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 46-54 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Valencia Basket
- Tj Shorts Guards: 16.9 pts, 1.9 reb, 5.6 ast, 20.4 PIR
- Nikola Mirotic Forwards: 13.0 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.9 ast, 15.0 PIR
- Armoni Brooks Guards: 14.9 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.2 ast, 13.5 PIR
- Kameron Taylor Forwards: 11.9 pts, 4.4 reb, 2.3 ast, 12.0 PIR
Bayern Munich
- Johannes Thiemann Centers: 9.2 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.7 ast, 11.7 PIR
- Duane Washington Guards: 15.3 pts, 0.8 reb, 2.9 ast, 10.8 PIR
- Vladimir Lucic Forwards: 7.1 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.5 ast, 10.2 PIR
- Austin Wiley Centers: 7.7 pts, 6.1 reb, 0.7 ast, 9.8 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Valencia Basket produce | Bayern Munich allow | Bayern Munich produce | Valencia Basket allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 47.0 | 46.5 | 30.7 | 40.2 |
| Forwards | 39.6 | 28.5 | 27.0 | 34.8 |
| Centers | 9.8 | 26.8 | 27.2 | 16.8 |
The most open matchup: Valencia Basket's guards (47.0 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 46.5 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Valencia Basket
- Nathan Reuvers: Injured: Foot
- Nikola Mirotic: Has missed his team's last 2 games
Bayern Munich
- No known absences
8. Head-to-head
In their last 4 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Valencia Basket 2, Bayern Munich 2.
- 2026-01-22: Bayern Munich – Valencia Basket 93-89
- 2025-11-25: Valencia Basket – Bayern Munich 90-64
- 2024-03-20: Valencia Basket – Bayern Munich 70-68
- 2023-12-28: Bayern Munich – Valencia Basket 85-84
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Valencia Basket 82% – Bayern Munich 18%, a score of about 96-84. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.