EuroLeague · Round 11 · Wednesday 11 November at 21:45
Paris Basketball vs Fenerbahce: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 11)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Paris Basketball | Fenerbahce | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 14th · 4-6 | 4th · 7-3 |
| Home / away | 1-4 / 3-2 | 6-0 / 1-3 |
| Form (5) | LLWWW | WWLLW |
| Points for / against | 89.0 / 92.6 | 80.3 / 75.4 |
| Net rating | -4.6 (14th) | +6.8 (6th) |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
Paris Basketball: L @ Crvena Zvezda 81-90 · L vs Valencia Basket 93-104 · W @ Dubai Basketball 99-93 · W @ Maccabi Tel Aviv 99-94 · W @ Anadolu Efes 95-90
Fenerbahce: W vs Partizan 74-65 · W @ Olympiacos 64-61 · L @ Valencia Basket 78-86 · L @ Real Madrid 76-95 · W vs Baskonia 84-65
Our model gives Fenerbahce 56%, with a projected score of 86-88, about 174 total points and a pace of 75.7 possessions. Confidence: low.
2. What will decide the game
- Fenerbahce on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 2nd, while Paris Basketball's offense is 10th. Fenerbahce can shut this down.
- Fenerbahce on offense, offensive rebounds: they rank 12th in the league while Paris Basketball's defense ranks only 19th. A clear edge for Fenerbahce.
- Pace: Paris Basketball play faster (77.5 possessions) than Fenerbahce (72.5). Whoever imposes their tempo takes the first step; the model expects 75.7.
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Paris Basketball | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 114.9 (11th) | 110.8 (16th) | 115.0 |
| Defensive rating | 119.6 (14th) | 104.0 (2nd) | 115.0 |
| Pace (possessions) | 77.5 (2nd) | 72.5 (19th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 55.4% (10th) | 51.8% (17th) | 54.4% |
| TS% | 57.6% (14th) | 55.5% (17th) | 58.3% |
| 3PA rate | 47.7% | 42.4% | – |
| Assist rate | 60.1% (15th) | 61.5% (11th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 17.7% (11th) | 17.2% (10th) | 17.0% |
| OREB% | 35.2% (6th) | 33.5% (12th) | 32.9% |
| DREB% | 62.2% (19th) | 67.6% (9th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 21.8% (20th) | 28.0% (16th) | 30.0% |
| Opponent eFG% | 55.9% (15th) | 47.5% (2nd) | 54.5% |
| Opponent TOV% | 17.8% (7th) | 17.2% (8th) | 17.0% |
| Opponent FTr | 32.3% (14th) | 33.8% (18th) | 30.0% |
Paris Basketball: Weaknesses: rarely gets to the line and concedes second chances.
Fenerbahce: Strengths: holds opponents to poor shooting. Weaknesses: poor shooting and rarely gets to the line.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Paris Basketball offense | Fenerbahce defense | Fenerbahce offense | Paris Basketball defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 55.4% (10th) | 47.5% (2nd) | 51.8% (17th) | 55.9% (15th) |
| turnovers | 17.7% (11th) | 17.2% (8th) | 17.2% (10th) | 17.8% (7th) |
| offensive rebounds | 35.2% (6th) | 32.4% (9th) | 33.5% (12th) | 37.8% (19th) |
| free throws | 21.8% (20th) | 33.8% (18th) | 28.0% (16th) | 32.3% (14th) |
4. Shots and zones
Paris Basketball take 8% of their shots from mid-range (league 11%) at 45% (league 41%), and Fenerbahce allow 40% there. That is Paris Basketball's biggest edge.
Fenerbahce take 26% of their shots in the paint (league 31%) at 44% (league 47%), and Paris Basketball allow 54% there. That is Fenerbahce's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Paris Basketball | 12% · 85% | 33% · 53% | 8% · 45% | 7% · 34% | 33% · 34% | 8% · 34% |
| Defense Fenerbahce | 19% · 74% | 28% · 42% | 14% · 40% | 6% · 28% | 24% · 28% | 10% · 28% |
| Offense Fenerbahce | 20% · 78% | 26% · 44% | 11% · 41% | 7% · 35% | 24% · 29% | 11% · 33% |
| Defense Paris Basketball | 13% · 75% | 35% · 54% | 12% · 41% | 6% · 29% | 28% · 39% | 7% · 37% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 41% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Paris Basketball: 9% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Fenerbahce: 7% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Paris Basketball · Shot chart Fenerbahce
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Paris Basketball
Best lineups
- Daulton Hommes, Mouhamed Faye, Terry Tarpey, Sebastian Herrera, Tyson Etienne: -9.3 net in 32 possessions
On/Off
- Nadir Hifi: the team is +50.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Terry Tarpey: the team is +45.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Joel Ayayi: the team is 53.6 better with him off the court
Paris Basketball: +34.1 net in 44 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 61-46 in points.
Fenerbahce
Best lineups
- Nicolo Melli, Will Clyburn, Shane Larkin, Shavon Shields, Wade Baldwin Iv: +15.8 net in 32 possessions
- Shavon Shields, Trent Forrest, Marcus Bingham, Talen Horton Tucker, Braxton Key: +6.7 net in 45 possessions
On/Off
- Wade Baldwin Iv: the team is +24.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Nicolo Melli: the team is +15.9 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Talen Horton Tucker: the team is 14.2 better with him off the court
Fenerbahce: +32.4 net in 25 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 31-23 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Paris Basketball
- Nadir Hifi Guards: 22.1 pts, 2.3 reb, 3.6 ast, 20.6 PIR
- Jared Rhoden Guards: 13.3 pts, 3.5 reb, 2.3 ast, 11.5 PIR
- Tj Warren Forwards: 13.0 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.2 ast, 11.3 PIR
- Allan Dokossi Centers: 5.4 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.1 ast, 10.1 PIR
Fenerbahce
- Shavon Shields Forwards: 11.6 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.5 ast, 13.6 PIR
- Wade Baldwin Iv Guards: 11.3 pts, 3.1 reb, 4.5 ast, 12.8 PIR
- Talen Horton Tucker Guards: 11.4 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.3 ast, 12.2 PIR
- Will Clyburn Forwards: 10.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.5 ast, 10.0 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Paris Basketball produce | Fenerbahce allow | Fenerbahce produce | Paris Basketball allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 47.7 | 27.4 | 35.5 | 43.0 |
| Forwards | 20.6 | 23.5 | 39.3 | 38.9 |
| Centers | 19.3 | 22.0 | 7.9 | 20.5 |
The most open matchup: Fenerbahce's guards (35.5 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 43.0 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Paris Basketball
- Daulton Hommes: Has missed his team's last 2 games
Fenerbahce
- No known absences
8. Head-to-head
In their last 7 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Paris Basketball 0, Fenerbahce 7.
- 2026-02-05: Paris Basketball – Fenerbahce 90-92
- 2025-10-01: Fenerbahce – Paris Basketball 96-77
- 2025-04-29: Paris Basketball – Fenerbahce 88-98
- 2025-04-24: Fenerbahce – Paris Basketball 89-72
- 2025-04-22: Fenerbahce – Paris Basketball 83-78
- 2025-03-25: Fenerbahce – Paris Basketball 101-100
- 2025-03-03: Paris Basketball – Fenerbahce 83-87
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Paris Basketball 44% – Fenerbahce 56%, a score of about 86-88. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.