EuroLeague · Round 11 · Friday 13 November at 21:15
Panathinaikos vs Barcelona: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 11)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Panathinaikos | Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 1st · 8-2 | 7th · 7-3 |
| Home / away | 6-1 / 2-1 | 3-2 / 4-1 |
| Form (5) | LWWLW | LWWWW |
| Points for / against | 87.6 / 78.7 | 91.0 / 88.7 |
| Net rating | +12.0 (1st) | +3.0 (10th) |
| Rest days | 9 | 8 |
Panathinaikos: L vs Hapoel Tel Aviv 81-91 · W vs Baskonia 85-79 · W vs Olimpia Milano 80-75 · L @ Anadolu Efes 68-83 · W @ Real Madrid 115-112
Barcelona: L vs Olympiacos 100-105 · W @ Olimpia Milano 89-81 · W @ Bayern Munich 88-84 · W vs Valencia Basket 98-94 · W @ Hapoel Tel Aviv 93-90
Our model gives Panathinaikos 65%, with a projected score of 89-83, about 172 total points and a pace of 73.8 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Panathinaikos on defense, free throws: they rank 7th, while Barcelona's offense is 19th. Panathinaikos can shut this down.
- Panathinaikos on offense, offensive rebounds: they rank 2nd in the league while Barcelona's defense ranks only 13th. A clear edge for Panathinaikos.
- Panathinaikos on offense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 5th in the league while Barcelona's defense ranks only 13th. A clear edge for Panathinaikos.
- Absences: Kevin Punter (Barcelona).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Panathinaikos | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 117.7 (6th) | 120.7 (4th) | 115.0 |
| Defensive rating | 105.7 (3rd) | 117.6 (13th) | 115.0 |
| Pace (possessions) | 73.5 (15th) | 74.5 (13th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 56.8% (5th) | 57.4% (3rd) | 54.4% |
| TS% | 60.5% (6th) | 60.1% (7th) | 58.3% |
| 3PA rate | 43.9% | 42.2% | – |
| Assist rate | 62.0% (10th) | 49.3% (20th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 18.9% (17th) | 15.8% (5th) | 17.0% |
| OREB% | 36.9% (2nd) | 34.9% (7th) | 32.9% |
| DREB% | 67.6% (10th) | 66.6% (13th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 34.9% (2nd) | 25.6% (19th) | 30.0% |
| Opponent eFG% | 50.9% (3rd) | 55.5% (13th) | 54.5% |
| Opponent TOV% | 18.7% (4th) | 17.2% (9th) | 17.0% |
| Opponent FTr | 27.6% (7th) | 30.3% (10th) | 30.0% |
Panathinaikos: Strengths: strong on second chances and gets to the line often. Weaknesses: turns the ball over a lot.
Barcelona: Strengths: efficient shooting and protects the ball. Weaknesses: rarely gets to the line.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Panathinaikos offense | Barcelona defense | Barcelona offense | Panathinaikos defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 56.8% (5th) | 55.5% (13th) | 57.4% (3rd) | 50.9% (3rd) |
| turnovers | 18.9% (17th) | 17.2% (9th) | 15.8% (5th) | 18.7% (4th) |
| offensive rebounds | 36.9% (2nd) | 33.4% (13th) | 34.9% (7th) | 32.4% (10th) |
| free throws | 34.9% (2nd) | 30.3% (10th) | 25.6% (19th) | 27.6% (7th) |
4. Shots and zones
Panathinaikos take 29% of their shots in the paint (league 31%) at 55% (league 47%), and Barcelona allow 49% there. That is Panathinaikos's biggest edge.
Barcelona take 14% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 85% (league 79%), and Panathinaikos allow 85% there. That is Barcelona's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Panathinaikos | 15% · 73% | 29% · 55% | 12% · 55% | 7% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 10% · 33% |
| Defense Barcelona | 14% · 78% | 34% · 49% | 10% · 45% | 7% · 40% | 25% · 37% | 11% · 36% |
| Offense Barcelona | 14% · 85% | 31% · 53% | 13% · 43% | 6% · 37% | 28% · 38% | 8% · 37% |
| Defense Panathinaikos | 17% · 85% | 32% · 45% | 8% · 41% | 9% · 29% | 27% · 30% | 9% · 29% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 41% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Panathinaikos: 7% of shots in transition and 8% on second chances. Barcelona: 5% of shots in transition and 8% on second chances. Shot chart Panathinaikos · Shot chart Barcelona
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Panathinaikos
Best lineups
- Brancou Badio, Konstantinos Mitoglou, Sylvain Francisco, Nigel Hayes-Davis, Juancho Hernangomez: +48.8 net in 37 possessions
- Mathias Lessort, Isaac Bonga, Brancou Badio, Sylvain Francisco, Nigel Hayes-Davis: +46.1 net in 46 possessions
On/Off
- Juancho Hernangomez: the team is +19.9 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Brancou Badio: the team is +15.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Guerschon Yabusele: the team is 24.3 better with him off the court
Panathinaikos: +22.5 net in 40 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 54-45 in points.
Barcelona
Best lineups
- Dario Brizuela, Umoja Gibson, Tyrese Martin, Stanley Umude, Olivier Nkamhoua: -22.1 net in 18 possessions
- Olek Balcerowski, Dario Brizuela, Umoja Gibson, Stanley Umude, Tosan Evbuomwan: -23.1 net in 13 possessions
On/Off
- Kevin Punter (out): the team is +10.6 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Umoja Gibson: the team is +10.3 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Justin Robinson: the team is 15.8 better with him off the court
Barcelona: -5.2 net in 57 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 75-78 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Panathinaikos
- Mathias Lessort Centers: 12.6 pts, 7.6 reb, 1.8 ast, 20.8 PIR
- Sylvain Francisco Guards: 13.8 pts, 2.3 reb, 4.7 ast, 13.9 PIR
- Nigel Hayes-Davis Forwards: 11.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 0.6 ast, 10.1 PIR
- Guerschon Yabusele Forwards: 8.7 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.1 ast, 9.7 PIR
Barcelona
- Justin Robinson Guards: 13.7 pts, 1.9 reb, 4.1 ast, 13.7 PIR
- Josh Nebo Centers: 8.3 pts, 7.6 reb, 0.7 ast, 13.6 PIR
- Umoja Gibson Guards: 10.5 pts, 2.5 reb, 2.9 ast, 13.0 PIR
- Tyrese Martin Forwards: 8.9 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.4 ast, 7.9 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Panathinaikos produce | Barcelona allow | Barcelona produce | Panathinaikos allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 27.4 | 40.2 | 30.9 | 27.1 |
| Forwards | 37.8 | 29.4 | 28.0 | 28.3 |
| Centers | 23.3 | 22.1 | 16.3 | 17.3 |
The most open matchup: Panathinaikos's guards (27.4 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 40.2 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Panathinaikos
- Eleftherios Mantzoukas: Has missed his team's last 4 games
Barcelona
- Umoja Gibson: Has missed his team's last 2 games
- Kevin Punter: Injured: Ankle (in the game against Breogán), out about 3 weeks · Expected back: 30 November
Barcelona will be without players who took 13% of their recent minutes.
According to the model, each absence shifts the expected margin by: Kevin Punter 0.3 points.
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Panathinaikos 3, Barcelona 3.
- 2026-04-07: Barcelona – Panathinaikos 79-93
- 2025-10-03: Panathinaikos – Barcelona 96-103
- 2025-01-15: Barcelona – Panathinaikos 82-73
- 2024-12-03: Panathinaikos – Barcelona 90-89
- 2024-03-22: Panathinaikos – Barcelona 89-81
- 2023-11-03: Barcelona – Panathinaikos 80-72
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Panathinaikos 65% – Barcelona 35%, a score of about 89-83. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.