EuroLeague · Round 11 · Thursday 12 November at 21:15
Olympiacos vs Dubai Basketball: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 11)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Olympiacos | Dubai Basketball | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 5th · 7-3 | 6th · 7-3 |
| Home / away | 2-2 / 5-1 | 3-2 / 4-1 |
| Form (5) | WLWWL | WWLWW |
| Points for / against | 87.2 / 81.6 | 88.0 / 84.1 |
| Net rating | +7.4 (5th) | +5.3 (8th) |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
Olympiacos: W @ Barcelona 105-100 · L vs Fenerbahce 61-64 · W @ Besiktas 81-73 · W vs Olimpia Milano 84-78 · L vs Crvena Zvezda 57-62
Dubai Basketball: W @ Olimpia Milano 101-97 · W @ Bayern Munich 107-91 · L vs Paris Basketball 93-99 · W vs Hapoel Tel Aviv 97-83 · W @ Virtus Bologna 93-75
Our model gives Olympiacos 73%, with a projected score of 89-82, about 171 total points and a pace of 73.7 possessions. Confidence: high.
2. What will decide the game
- Olympiacos on offense, turnovers: they rank 12th in the league while Dubai Basketball's defense ranks only 20th. A clear edge for Olympiacos.
- Dubai Basketball on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 7th, while Olympiacos's offense is 13th. Dubai Basketball can shut this down.
- Dubai Basketball on defense, free throws: they rank 2nd, while Olympiacos's offense is 8th. Dubai Basketball can shut this down.
- Absences: Jean Montero (Olympiacos).
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Olympiacos | Dubai Basketball | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 115.5 (8th) | 120.5 (5th) | 115.0 |
| Defensive rating | 108.1 (5th) | 115.1 (9th) | 115.0 |
| Pace (possessions) | 73.7 (14th) | 73.0 (18th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 53.7% (13th) | 56.1% (6th) | 54.4% |
| TS% | 58.0% (12th) | 60.8% (4th) | 58.3% |
| 3PA rate | 38.8% | 36.8% | – |
| Assist rate | 60.4% (13th) | 58.4% (16th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 17.7% (12th) | 15.9% (6th) | 17.0% |
| OREB% | 37.3% (1st) | 33.5% (10th) | 32.9% |
| DREB% | 66.8% (12th) | 68.5% (6th) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 31.7% (8th) | 35.2% (1st) | 30.0% |
| Opponent eFG% | 53.1% (8th) | 52.7% (7th) | 54.5% |
| Opponent TOV% | 19.1% (2nd) | 13.1% (20th) | 17.0% |
| Opponent FTr | 20.6% (1st) | 24.8% (2nd) | 30.0% |
Olympiacos: Strengths: strong on second chances and forces turnovers.
Dubai Basketball: Strengths: gets to the line often. Weaknesses: forces few turnovers.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Olympiacos offense | Dubai Basketball defense | Dubai Basketball offense | Olympiacos defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 53.7% (13th) | 52.7% (7th) | 56.1% (6th) | 53.1% (8th) |
| turnovers | 17.7% (12th) | 13.1% (20th) | 15.9% (6th) | 19.1% (2nd) |
| offensive rebounds | 37.3% (1st) | 31.5% (6th) | 33.5% (10th) | 33.2% (12th) |
| free throws | 31.7% (8th) | 24.8% (2nd) | 35.2% (1st) | 20.6% (1st) |
4. Shots and zones
Olympiacos take 21% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 82% (league 79%), and Dubai Basketball allow 84% there. That is Olympiacos's biggest edge.
Dubai Basketball take 6% of their shots corner threes (league 6%) at 46% (league 39%), and Olympiacos allow 50% there. That is Dubai Basketball's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Olympiacos | 21% · 82% | 32% · 47% | 8% · 43% | 7% · 48% | 25% · 29% | 7% · 15% |
| Defense Dubai Basketball | 12% · 84% | 37% · 51% | 12% · 33% | 5% · 43% | 26% · 33% | 8% · 30% |
| Offense Dubai Basketball | 14% · 84% | 36% · 49% | 13% · 42% | 6% · 46% | 23% · 37% | 8% · 35% |
| Defense Olympiacos | 14% · 84% | 25% · 37% | 12% · 41% | 9% · 50% | 31% · 36% | 8% · 27% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 41% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Olympiacos: 5% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Dubai Basketball: 6% of shots in transition and 6% on second chances. Shot chart Olympiacos · Shot chart Dubai Basketball
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Olympiacos
Best lineups
- Kostas Papanikolaou, Sasha Vezenkov, Codi Miller-Mcintyre, Donta Hall, Tyson Ward: +42.2 net in 36 possessions
- Sasha Vezenkov, Nikola Milutinov, Codi Miller-Mcintyre, Tyson Ward, Evan Fournier: +8.3 net in 60 possessions
On/Off
- Jean Montero (out): the team is +27.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Evan Fournier: the team is +12.2 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Nikola Milutinov: the team is 16.5 better with him off the court
Olympiacos: +12.0 net in 75 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 91-82 in points.
Dubai Basketball
Best lineups
- Tornike Shengelia, Dzanan Musa, Dwayne Bacon, Mckinley Wright Iv, Mfiondu Kabengele: +41.7 net in 38 possessions
- Filip Petrusev, Dwayne Bacon, Mckinley Wright Iv, Mfiondu Kabengele, Davion Mintz: +36.0 net in 53 possessions
On/Off
- Mckinley Wright Iv: the team is +28.9 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Davion Mintz: the team is +14.0 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Kosta Kondic: the team is 32.7 better with him off the court
Dubai Basketball: -97.3 net in 11 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 9-20 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Olympiacos
- Sasha Vezenkov Forwards: 19.1 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.0 ast, 22.9 PIR
- Mbaye Ndiaye Forwards: 8.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.0 ast, 10.2 PIR
- Tyson Ward Forwards: 8.4 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.7 ast, 9.0 PIR
- Nikola Milutinov Centers: 3.2 pts, 6.2 reb, 0.8 ast, 8.8 PIR
Dubai Basketball
- Dwayne Bacon Forwards: 16.3 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.0 ast, 18.5 PIR
- Mfiondu Kabengele Centers: 14.6 pts, 7.8 reb, 1.0 ast, 17.8 PIR
- Elie Okobo Guards: 11.9 pts, 2.0 reb, 4.5 ast, 13.5 PIR
- Mckinley Wright Iv Guards: 10.6 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.4 ast, 11.5 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Olympiacos produce | Dubai Basketball allow | Dubai Basketball produce | Olympiacos allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 11.1 | 37.2 | 29.5 | 36.0 |
| Forwards | 50.8 | 24.0 | 32.7 | 28.7 |
| Centers | 19.2 | 23.1 | 32.6 | 14.0 |
The most open matchup: Olympiacos's forwards (50.8 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 24.0 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Olympiacos
- Jean Montero: Injured: Left knee meniscus surgery, out about 6 months · Expected back: May 2027
Dubai Basketball
- Thomas Walkup: Has missed his team's last 4 games
8. Head-to-head
In their last 2 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Olympiacos 1, Dubai Basketball 1.
- 2026-02-03: Dubai Basketball – Olympiacos 108-98
- 2025-10-10: Olympiacos – Dubai Basketball 86-67
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Olympiacos 73% – Dubai Basketball 27%, a score of about 89-82. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.