EuroLeague · Round 11 · Thursday 12 November at 21:30
Olimpia Milano vs Zalgiris: in-depth preview (EuroLeague round 11)
Automatic analysis from official stats and the full-season play-by-play. Refreshed with every site update until tip-off.
1. The picture before tip-off
| Olimpia Milano | Zalgiris | |
|---|---|---|
| Position / record | 19th · 1-9 | 10th · 6-4 |
| Home / away | 1-4 / 0-5 | 2-2 / 4-2 |
| Form (5) | LLLLL | LWWWW |
| Points for / against | 81.1 / 89.6 | 85.6 / 82.3 |
| Net rating | -11.6 (18th) | +4.4 (9th) |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
Olimpia Milano: L vs Dubai Basketball 97-101 · L vs Barcelona 81-89 · L @ Panathinaikos 75-80 · L @ Olympiacos 78-84 · L vs Valencia Basket 73-84
Zalgiris: L vs Anadolu Efes 70-85 · W vs ASVEL 105-85 · W @ Virtus Bologna 91-74 · W vs Partizan 87-80 · W @ Besiktas 83-67
Our model gives Zalgiris 70%, with a projected score of 83-88, about 171 total points and a pace of 73.9 possessions. Confidence: medium.
2. What will decide the game
- Zalgiris on defense, shooting (eFG%): they rank 4th, while Olimpia Milano's offense is 16th. Zalgiris can shut this down.
- Zalgiris on offense, offensive rebounds: they rank 5th in the league while Olimpia Milano's defense ranks only 16th. A clear edge for Zalgiris.
- Zalgiris on defense, offensive rebounds: they rank 1st, while Olimpia Milano's offense is 8th. Zalgiris can shut this down.
3. Offense and defense in detail
Per 100 possessions from play-by-play · league rank in brackets (1st = best, 20 teams)
| Olimpia Milano | Zalgiris | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 110.5 (17th) | 114.4 (12th) | 115.0 |
| Defensive rating | 122.1 (18th) | 110.0 (6th) | 115.0 |
| Pace (possessions) | 73.4 (17th) | 74.8 (12th) | 75.1 |
| eFG% | 51.9% (16th) | 54.0% (12th) | 54.4% |
| TS% | 56.8% (15th) | 58.1% (11th) | 58.3% |
| 3PA rate | 44.1% | 39.4% | – |
| Assist rate | 65.2% (7th) | 63.0% (9th) | 61.9% |
| Turnover % | 19.2% (19th) | 17.9% (13th) | 17.0% |
| OREB% | 33.8% (8th) | 35.3% (5th) | 32.9% |
| DREB% | 65.8% (16th) | 72.8% (1st) | 67.0% |
| Free-throw rate | 30.9% (10th) | 32.4% (5th) | 30.0% |
| Opponent eFG% | 59.4% (18th) | 51.8% (4th) | 54.5% |
| Opponent TOV% | 17.2% (10th) | 15.4% (18th) | 17.0% |
| Opponent FTr | 30.9% (11th) | 25.7% (5th) | 30.0% |
Olimpia Milano: Weaknesses: turns the ball over a lot and allows easy shots.
Zalgiris: Strengths: boxes out well and holds opponents to poor shooting. Weaknesses: forces few turnovers.
Four Factors head-to-head
| Factor | Olimpia Milano offense | Zalgiris defense | Zalgiris offense | Olimpia Milano defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| shooting (eFG%) | 51.9% (16th) | 51.8% (4th) | 54.0% (12th) | 59.4% (18th) |
| turnovers | 19.2% (19th) | 15.4% (18th) | 17.9% (13th) | 17.2% (10th) |
| offensive rebounds | 33.8% (8th) | 27.2% (1st) | 35.3% (5th) | 34.2% (16th) |
| free throws | 30.9% (10th) | 25.7% (5th) | 32.4% (5th) | 30.9% (11th) |
4. Shots and zones
Olimpia Milano take 18% of their shots at the rim (league 17%) at 80% (league 79%), and Zalgiris allow 77% there. That is Olimpia Milano's biggest edge.
Zalgiris take 5% of their shots corner threes (league 6%) at 59% (league 39%), and Olimpia Milano allow 42% there. That is Zalgiris's biggest edge.
| Share of shots · FG% | Rim | Paint | Mid | Corner 3 | Wing 3 | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense Olimpia Milano | 18% · 80% | 26% · 42% | 12% · 36% | 7% · 30% | 27% · 38% | 10% · 27% |
| Defense Zalgiris | 20% · 77% | 29% · 46% | 14% · 43% | 4% · 42% | 25% · 30% | 8% · 31% |
| Offense Zalgiris | 18% · 73% | 33% · 44% | 10% · 28% | 5% · 59% | 23% · 35% | 11% · 41% |
| Defense Olimpia Milano | 21% · 82% | 27% · 50% | 11% · 43% | 5% · 42% | 26% · 40% | 10% · 37% |
| League | 17% · 79% | 31% · 47% | 11% · 41% | 6% · 39% | 27% · 35% | 9% · 35% |
Olimpia Milano: 5% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Zalgiris: 5% of shots in transition and 7% on second chances. Shot chart Olimpia Milano · Shot chart Zalgiris
5. Lineups, On/Off and clutch
Olimpia Milano
Best lineups
- Alec Peters, Leandro Bolmaro, Devon Hall, Moses Wright, Rj Cole: +8.6 net in 35 possessions
- Marko Guduric, Devin Booker, Leandro Bolmaro, Darius Thompson, Jason Burnell: -3.1 net in 32 possessions
On/Off
- Ousmane Diop: the team is +28.0 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Devin Booker: the team is +21.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Devon Hall: the team is 20.6 better with him off the court
Olimpia Milano: -45.7 net in 39 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 38-56 in points.
Zalgiris
Best lineups
- Jonas Valanciunas, Arnas Butkevicius, Azuolas Tubelis, Carsen Edwards, Saben Lee: +3.7 net in 54 possessions
On/Off
- Marius Grigonis: the team is +19.1 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Keenan Evans: the team is +11.4 better with him on court (net per 100 possessions)
- Marek Blazevic: the team is 43.8 better with him off the court
Zalgiris: +27.1 net in 37 clutch possessions (last 5′, margin ≤5), 56-46 in points.
6. Key players and matchups by position
Olimpia Milano
- Moses Wright Centers: 12.1 pts, 5.5 reb, 0.8 ast, 14.6 PIR
- Devon Hall Guards: 9.2 pts, 2.7 reb, 4.0 ast, 10.6 PIR
- Alec Peters Forwards: 9.0 pts, 3.8 reb, 0.9 ast, 10.1 PIR
- Rj Cole Guards: 9.3 pts, 2.0 reb, 3.1 ast, 9.6 PIR
Zalgiris
- Jonas Valanciunas Centers: 12.1 pts, 8.4 reb, 1.9 ast, 19.7 PIR
- Azuolas Tubelis Forwards: 11.6 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.5 ast, 15.9 PIR
- Carsen Edwards Guards: 15.3 pts, 1.3 reb, 2.4 ast, 11.6 PIR
- Sterling Brown Guards: 10.6 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.0 ast, 10.5 PIR
PIR per game by position · production excludes injured players
| PIR / game | Olimpia Milano produce | Zalgiris allow | Zalgiris produce | Olimpia Milano allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guards | 41.4 | 32.6 | 37.4 | 36.0 |
| Forwards | 17.3 | 34.0 | 33.6 | 39.1 |
| Centers | 20.4 | 15.9 | 20.6 | 20.8 |
The most open matchup: Olimpia Milano's guards (41.4 PIR per game) against a defense allowing 32.6 PIR at that position.
7. Absences and their impact
Olimpia Milano
- No known absences
Zalgiris
- Maodo Lo: Has missed his team's last 2 games
8. Head-to-head
In their last 6 EuroLeague meetings (since 2023): Olimpia Milano 2, Zalgiris 4.
- 2026-01-22: Olimpia Milano – Zalgiris 82-86
- 2025-10-16: Zalgiris – Olimpia Milano 78-89
- 2025-02-06: Zalgiris – Olimpia Milano 87-89
- 2024-10-17: Olimpia Milano – Zalgiris 82-85
- 2024-03-28: Zalgiris – Olimpia Milano 87-73
- 2023-11-30: Olimpia Milano – Zalgiris 70-83
9. Our view
All of the above comes together in the model's projection: Olimpia Milano 30% – Zalgiris 70%, a score of about 83-88. Try your own scenarios (absences, rest, venue) in the Matchup Center and follow the game live on the game page.
Projections are statistical estimates, not betting advice or a guarantee of any result. Gambling is for adults (18+) only. Please play responsibly.